Related papers: Noise Fit, Estimation Error and a Sharpe Informati…
Calibration is nowadays one of the most important processes involved in the extraction of valuable data from measurements. The current availability of an optimum data cube measured from a heterogeneous set of instruments and surveys relies…
Information criteria such as Akaike's (AIC) and Bayes' (BIC) are widely used for model selection in physics and beyond, quantifying the tradeoff between model complexity and goodness-of-fit to enforce parsimony. However, their derivation…
Sharpe ratio is widely used in asset management to compare and benchmark funds and asset managers. It computes the ratio of the excess return over the strategy standard deviation. However, the elements to compute the Sharpe ratio, namely,…
Non-concave penalized maximum likelihood methods, such as the Bridge, the SCAD, and the MCP, are widely used because they not only do parameter estimation and variable selection simultaneously but also have a high efficiency as compared to…
We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which…
This paper applies the recently axiomatized Optimum Information Principle (minimize the Kullback-Leibler information subject to all relevant information) to nonparametric density estimation, which provides a theoretical foundation as well…
We determine the expected error by smoothing the data locally. Then we optimize the shape of the kernel smoother to minimize the error. Because the optimal estimator depends on the unknown function, our scheme automatically adjusts to the…
Error propagation formulae are derived for the expectation-maximization iterative unfolding algorithm regularized by a smoothing step. The effective number of parameters in the fit to the observed data is defined for unfolding procedures.…
We propose an estimator of prediction error using an approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm that can be applied to a broad range of sparse penalties. Following Stein's lemma, the estimator of the generalized degrees of freedom, which…
This paper considers the problem of adaptive estimation of a template in a randomly shifted curve model. Using the Fourier transform of the data, we show that this problem can be transformed into a stochastic linear inverse problem. Our aim…
In data-driven optimization, the sample performance of the obtained decision typically incurs an optimistic bias against the true performance, a phenomenon commonly known as the Optimizer's Curse and intimately related to overfitting in…
In this paper, we consider the problem of sensor selection for parameter estimation with correlated measurement noise. We seek optimal sensor activations by formulating an optimization problem, in which the estimation error, given by the…
For the multivariate linear regression model with unknown covariance, the corrected Akaike information criterion is the minimum variance unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback--Leibler discrepancy. In this study, based on the loss…
Noise is an unavoidable part of most measurements which can hinder a correct interpretation of the data. Uncertainties propagate in the data analysis and can lead to biased results even in basic descriptive statistics such as the central…
The semiparametric estimation approach, which includes inverse-probability-weighted and doubly robust estimation using propensity scores, is a standard tool in causal inference, and it is rapidly being extended in various directions. On the…
Shrinkage estimation usually reduces variance at the cost of bias. But when we care only about some parameters of a model, I show that we can reduce variance without incurring bias if we have additional information about the distribution of…
Managers, employers, policymakers, and others often seek to understand whether decisions are biased against certain groups. One popular analytic strategy is to estimate disparities after adjusting for observed covariates, typically with a…
In optimization problems, the quality of a candidate solution can be characterized by the optimality gap. For most stochastic optimization problems, this gap must be statistically estimated. We show that for risk-averse problems, standard…
The Rayleigh regression model was recently proposed for modeling amplitude values of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image pixels. However, inferences from such model are based on the maximum likelihood estimators, which can be biased for…
A popular technique for selecting and tuning machine learning estimators is cross-validation. Cross-validation evaluates overall model fit, usually in terms of predictive accuracy. In causal inference, the optimal choice of estimator…