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The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
We investigate the probability distribution of order imbalance calculated from the order flow data of 43 Chinese stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Two definitions of order imbalance are considered based on the order number and…
The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…
In the context of long-tail classification on graphs, the vast majority of existing work primarily revolves around the development of model debiasing strategies, intending to mitigate class imbalances and enhance the overall performance.…
We investigate the relaxation of long-tailed distributions under stochastic dynamics that do not support such tails. Linear relaxation is found to be a borderline case in which long tails are exponentially suppressed in time but not…
We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…
Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of…
Power law or generalized polynomial regressions with unknown real-valued exponents and coefficients, and weakly dependent errors, are considered for observations over time, space or space--time. Consistency and asymptotic normality of…
Recognition problems in long-tailed data, in which the sample size per class is heavily skewed, have gained importance because the distribution of the sample size per class in a dataset is generally exponential unless the sample size is…
In this paper, we investigate the potential of the age-dependent random connection model (ADRCM) with the aim of representing higher-order networks. A key contribution of our work are probabilistic limit results in large domains. More…
Both parametric distribution functions appearing in extreme value theory - the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution - have log-concave densities if the extreme value index gamma is in [-1,0].…
The goal of this paper is two-fold: 1. We review classical and recent measures of serial extremal dependence in a strictly stationary time series as well as their estimation. 2. We discuss recent concepts of heavy-tailed time series,…
We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…
The estimation of the extremal dependence structure is spoiled by the impact of the bias, which increases with the number of observations used for the estimation. Already known in the univariate setting, the bias correction procedure is…
At high levels, the asymptotic distribution of a stationary, regularly varying Markov chain is conveniently given by its tail process. The latter takes the form of a geometric random walk, the increment distribution depending on the sign of…
Unraveling the reasons behind the remarkable success and exceptional generalization capabilities of deep neural networks presents a formidable challenge. Recent insights from random matrix theory, specifically those concerning the spectral…
We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…
How to estimate the uncertainty of a given model is a crucial problem. Current calibration techniques treat different classes equally and thus implicitly assume that the distribution of training data is balanced, but ignore the fact that…
An overview is given of the long-time and long-distance behavior of correlation functions in both classical and quantum statistical mechanics. After a simple derivation of the classical long-time tails in equilibrium time correlation…
This paper shows that the CoVaR,$\Delta$-CoVaR,CoES,$\Delta$-CoES and MES systemic risk measures can be represented in terms of the univariate risk measure evaluated at a quantile determined by the copula. The result is applied to derive…