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We study the problem of factor modelling vector- and tensor-valued time series in the presence of heavy tails in the data, which produce extreme observations with non-negligible probability. We propose to combine a two-step procedure for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-08 Matteo Barigozzi , Haeran Cho , Hyeyoung Maeng

We propose and analyze a new estimator of the covariance matrix that admits strong theoretical guarantees under weak assumptions on the underlying distribution, such as existence of moments of only low order. While estimation of covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Stanislav Minsker , Xiaohan Wei

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

We survey some of the recent advances in mean estimation and regression function estimation. In particular, we describe sub-Gaussian mean estimators for possibly heavy-tailed data both in the univariate and multivariate settings. We focus…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-12 Gabor Lugosi , Shahar Mendelson

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-27 Jongwook Kim , Teppei Okumura

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in noisy signals. Many noisy signals in real systems display trends, so that the scaling results obtained from the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-07 Kun Hu , Plamen Ch. Ivanov , Zhi Chen , Pedro Carpena , H. Eugene Stanley

Long-range temporal and spatial correlations have been reported in a remarkable number of studies. In particular power-law scaling in neural activity raised considerable interest. We here provide a straightforward algorithm not only to…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-12-09 Robert Ton , Andreas Daffertshofer

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou

We introduce a new test for detection of power-law cross-correlations among a pair of time series - the rescaled covariance test. The test is based on a power-law divergence of the covariance of the partial sums of the long-range…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-10-10 Ladislav Kristoufek

The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-08 Lígia Henriques-Rodrigues , Frederico Caeiro , M. Ivette Gomes

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrended moving average (DMA) are two scaling analysis methods designed to quantify correlations in noisy non-stationary signals. We systematically study the performance of different variants of the…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 L. Xu , P. Ch. Ivanov , K. Hu , Z. Chen , A. Carbone , H. E. Stanley

We introduce two new estimators of the bivariate Hurst exponent in the power-law cross-correlations setting -- the cross-periodogram and local $X$-Whittle estimators -- as generalizations of their univariate counterparts. As the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-11 Ladislav Kristoufek

Stable subordinators, and more general subordinators possessing power law probability tails, have been widely used in the context of subdiffusions, where particles get trapped or immobile in a number of time periods, called constant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Phillip Kerger , Kei Kobayashi

High-dimensional covariance estimation is notoriously sensitive to outliers. While statistically optimal estimators exist for general heavy-tailed distributions, they often rely on computationally expensive techniques like semidefinite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-06 Even He

Here we propose a method, based on detrended covariance which we call detrended cross-correlation analysis (DXA), to investigate power-law cross-correlations between different simultaneously-recorded time series in the presence of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 Boris Podobnik , H. Eugene Stanley

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Stéphan Clémençon , Antoine Dematteo

In optical non-linear processes rogue waves can be observed, which can be mathematically described by heavy-tailed distributions. These distributions are special due to the fact that the probability of registering extremely high intensities…

Optics · Physics 2021-05-26 Éva Rácz , László Ruppert , Radim Filip

To draw inference on serial extremal dependence within heavy-tailed Markov chains, Drees, Segers and Warcho{\l} [Extremes (2015) 18, 369--402] proposed nonparametric estimators of the spectral tail process. The methodology can be extended…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-30 R. A. Davis , H. Drees , J. Segers , M. Warchoł

The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…

Applications · Statistics 2014-07-08 Abhik Ghosh

The quantitative analysis of financial time series often reveals two distinct features that standard Gaussian frameworks fail to capture: heavy-tailed marginal distributions and the phenomenon of extreme co-movements.While extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-14 Debanjana Datta , Diganta Mukherjee