Related papers: Filterbased Stochastic Volatility in Continuous-Ti…
We consider a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where the integrated continuous-time Markov chain can be observed at discrete time points perturbed by a Brownian motion. The aim is to derive a filter for the underlying continuous-time Markov chain.…
Financial markets exhibit alternating periods of rising and falling prices. Stock traders seeking to make profitable investment decisions have to account for those trends, where the goal is to accurately predict switches from bullish…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility…
Recommender systems help users find relevant items of interest based on the past preferences of those users. In many domains, however, the tastes and preferences of users change over time due to a variety of factors and recommender systems…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely applied in studies where a discrete-valued process of interest is observed indirectly. They have for example been used to model behaviour from human and animal tracking data, disease status from…
Psychological change processes, such as university student dropout in math, often exhibit discrete latent state transitions and can be studied using regime-switching models with intensive longitudinal data (ILD). Recently, regime-switching…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used increasingly to understand how movement patterns of animals arise from behavioural states. An animal is assumed to transition between behavioural states through time, as described by transition…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…
The formalism of state estimation and hidden Markov models (HMMs) can simplify and clarify the discussion of stochastic thermodynamics in the presence of feedback and measurement errors. After reviewing the basic formalism, we use it to…
Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…
Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is…
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we…
Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic…
Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit,…
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…
The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a…
We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…