Related papers: A Unified Monte-Carlo Jackknife for Small Area Est…
This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…
We provide a general methodology for unbiased estimation for intractable stochastic models. We consider situations where the target distribution can be written as an appropriate limit of distributions, and where conventional approaches…
Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…
Modern statistical analysis often encounters datasets with large sizes. For these datasets, conventional estimation methods can hardly be used immediately because practitioners often suffer from limited computational resources. In most…
We analyze bias correction methods using jackknife, bootstrap, and Taylor series. We focus on the binomial model, and consider the problem of bias correction for estimating $f(p)$, where $f \in C[0,1]$ is arbitrary. We characterize the…
A difficulty in MSE estimation occurs because we do not specify a full distribution for the survey weights. This obfuscates the use of fully parametric bootstrap procedures. To overcome this challenge, we develop a novel MSE estimator. We…
Conformal inference, cross-validation+, and the jackknife+ are hold-out methods that can be combined with virtually any machine learning algorithm to construct prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. In this paper, we develop…
Nested-error regression models are widely used for analyzing clustered data. For example, they are often applied to two-stage sample surveys, and in biology and econometrics. Prediction is usually the main goal of such analyses, and…
In partially linear single-index models, we obtain the semiparametrically efficient profile least-squares estimators of regression coefficients. We also employ the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty (SCAD) approach to…
Sketch-and-solve (SAS) is a very successful method to efficiently estimate the solution of heavily overdetermined large linear least squares problems. It uses random sketching to reduce the size of the problem, hence reducing the…
Ensemble learning is widely used in applications to make predictions in complex decision problems---for example, averaging models fitted to a sequence of samples bootstrapped from the available training data. While such methods offer more…
It is known that the Thresholded Lasso (TL), SCAD or MCP correct intrinsic estimation bias of the Lasso. In this paper we propose an alternative method of improving the Lasso for predictive models with general convex loss functions which…
Best linear unbiased prediction is well known for its wide range of applications including small area estimation. While the theory is well established for mixed linear models and under normality of the error and mixing distributions, the…
The consideration of predictive uncertainty in medical imaging with deep learning is of utmost importance. We apply estimation of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout to…
In this article, we propose a space-time Multi-Index Monte Carlo (MIMC) estimator for a one-dimensional parabolic stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) of Zakai type. We compare the complexity with the Multilevel Monte Carlo…
An empirical best linear unbiased prediction (EBLUP) estimator is utilized for efficient inference in small-area estimation. To measure its uncertainty, we need to estimate its mean squared error (MSE) since the true MSE cannot generally be…
Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…
We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…
We use the jackknife to bias correct the log-periodogram regression(LPR) estimator of the fractional parameter in a stationary fractionally integrated model. The weights for the jackknife estimator are chosen in such a way that bias…