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In this paper, we investigate a nonparametric approach to provide a recursive estimator of the transition density of a non-stationary piecewise-deterministic Markov process, from only one observation of the path within a long time. In this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-07 Romain Azaïs

Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-01 Robert T. McGibbon , Vijay S. Pande

We consider Markov-switching regression models, i.e. models for time series regression analyses where the functional relationship between covariates and response is subject to regime switching controlled by an unobservable Markov chain.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-12 Roland Langrock , Thomas Kneib , Richard Glennie , Théo Michelot

This paper considers the permissive supervisor synthesis for probabilistic systems modeled as Markov Decision Processes (MDP). Such systems are prevalent in power grids, transportation networks, communication networks and robotics. Unlike…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-03-23 Bo Wu , Xiaobin Zhang , Hai Lin

In classical Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), action costs and transition probabilities are assumed to be known, although an accurate estimation of these parameters is often not possible in practice. This study addresses MDPs under cost…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-06-24 Merve Merakli , Simge Kucukyavuz

Markov decision processes model systems subject to nondeterministic and probabilistic uncertainty. A plethora of verification techniques addresses variations of reachability properties, such as: Is there a scheduler resolving the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Lina Gerlach , Tobias Winkler , Erika Ábrahám , Borzoo Bonakdarpour , Sebastian Junges

Formal methods apply algorithms based on mathematical principles to enhance the reliability of systems. It would only be natural to try to progress from verification, model checking or testing a system against its formal specification into…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2014-02-28 Gal Katz , Doron Peled

A novel data-driven method for formal verification is proposed to study complex systems operating in safety-critical domains. The proposed approach is able to formally verify discrete-time stochastic dynamical systems against temporal logic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-11 Zhi Zhang , Chenyu Ma , Saleh Soudijani , Sadegh Soudjani

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-13 Suryadeepto Nag

In this paper, we consider the problem of safety assessment for Markov decision processes without explicit knowledge of the model. We aim to learn probabilistic safety specifications associated with a given policy without compromising the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-11 Abhijit Mazumdar , Rafal Wisniewski , Manuela L. Bujorianu

We consider the problem of parametric statistical inference when likelihood computations are prohibitively expensive but sampling from the model is possible. Several so-called likelihood-free methods have been developed to perform inference…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Owen Thomas , Ritabrata Dutta , Jukka Corander , Samuel Kaski , Michael U. Gutmann

We present in this paper a novel non-parametric approach useful for clustering Markov processes. We introduce a pre-processing step consisting in mapping multivariate independent and identically distributed samples from random variables to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Gautier Marti , Frank Nielsen , Philippe Very , Philippe Donnat

We present a general framework for applying learning algorithms and heuristical guidance to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of our techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive…

We consider the reduction of parametric families of linear dynamical systems having an affine parameter dependence that differ from one another by a low-rank variation in the state matrix. Usual approaches for parametric model reduction…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-12-25 Christopher Beattie , Serkan Gugercin , Zoran Tomljanovic

In this paper, we study the problem of estimating a Markov chain $X$(signal) from its noisy partial information $Y$, when the transition probability kernel depends on some unknown parameters. Our goal is to compute the conditional…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anastasia Papavasiliou

We present an efficient finite difference method for the computation of parameter sensitivities that is applicable to a wide class of continuous time Markov chain models. The estimator for the method is constructed by coupling the perturbed…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-05-14 David F. Anderson

We study the problem of parameter-free stochastic optimization, inquiring whether, and under what conditions, do fully parameter-free methods exist: these are methods that achieve convergence rates competitive with optimally tuned methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Amit Attia , Tomer Koren

Let $L:= -a(x) (-\Delta)^{\alpha/2}+ (b(x), \nabla)$, where $\alpha\in (0,2)$, and $a:\rd\to (0,\infty)$, $b: \rd\to \rd$. Under certain regularity assumptions on the coefficients $a$ and $b$, we associate with the $C_\infty(\rd)$-closure…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-28 Victoria Knopova , Alexei Kulik

A decade ago, Abdulla, Ben Henda and Mayr introduced the elegant concept of decisiveness for denumerable Markov chains [1]. Roughly speaking, decisiveness allows one to lift most good properties from finite Markov chains to denumerable…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-05 Nathalie Bertrand , Patricia Bouyer , Thomas Brihaye , Pierre Carlier

Probabilistic models are a critical part of the modern deep learning toolbox - ranging from generative models (VAEs, GANs), sequence to sequence models used in machine translation and speech processing to models over functional spaces…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-10 Krishnamurthy Dvijotham , Marta Garnelo , Alhussein Fawzi , Pushmeet Kohli