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Modeling and forecasting forward citations to a patent is a central task for the discovery of emerging technologies and for measuring the pulse of inventive progress. Conventional methods for forecasting these forward citations cast the…
Point processes often have a natural interpretation with respect to a continuous process. We propose a point process construction that describes arrival time observations in terms of the state of a latent diffusion process. In this…
In the world of science new technology have opened up the possibility to rely on advanced computational methods and models to conduct and produce scientific research. An important aspect of scientific and business workflows is provenance -…
The changes in user preferences can originate from substantial reasons, like personality shift, or transient and circumstantial ones, like seasonal changes in item popularities. Disregarding these temporal drifts in modelling user…
An observational study was conducted on a professional designer working on a design project in aerospace industry. The protocol data were analyzed in order to gain insight into the actions the designer used for the development of a solution…
This paper introduces a method for linking technological improvement rates (i.e. Moore's Law) and technology adoption curves (i.e. S-Curves). There has been considerable research surrounding Moore's Law and the generalized versions applied…
Scientific and technological frontiers advance through punctuated dynamics, yet the principles governing these dynamics remain poorly understood. Here we collect and analyze datasets tracking the evolution of frontiers across 9 different…
Tremendous neuroscientific progress has recently been made by mapping brain connectivity, complementing extensive knowledge of task-evoked brain activation patterns. However, despite evidence that they are related, these connectivity and…
The creation and deployment of software development processes for new domains (such as wireless Internet services) is a challenging task due to the lack of knowledge about adequate engineering techniques and their effects. In addition,…
The significance and abundance of data are increasing due to the growing digital data generated from social media, sensors, scholarly literature, patents, different forms of documents published online, databases, product manuals, etc.…
We present a dynamical theory of complex cooperative projects such as large engineering design or software development efforts, comprised of concurrent and interrelated tasks. The model accounts for temporal fluctuations both in task…
The characterisation of information processing is an important task in complex systems science. Information dynamics is a quantitative methodology for modelling the intrinsic information processing conducted by a process represented as a…
We study several models of growth driven by innovation and imitation by a continuum of firms, focusing on the interaction between the two. We first investigate a model on a technology ladder where innovation and imitation combine to…
The iterative development process is a framework used to design products and applications across a wide range of domains. It centers around building prototypes, testing them, and updating based on the test results. We discuss how we applied…
AI-based digital twins are at the leading edge of the Industry 4.0 revolution, which are technologically empowered by the Internet of Things and real-time data analysis. Information collected from industrial assets is produced in a…
Firm clusters are seen as having a positive effect on innovations, what can be interpreted as economies of scale or knowledge spillovers. The processes underlying the success of these clusters remain difficult to isolate. We propose in this…
Abductive reasoning, reasoning for inferring explanations for observations, is often mentioned in scientific, design-related and artistic contexts, but its understanding varies across these domains. This paper reviews how abductive…
The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution generating the observed data changes over time. If drift is present, machine learning models can become inaccurate and need adjustment. While there do exist methods…
Performance improvement in supply chains, taking into account customer demand in the tactical planning process is essential. It is more and more difficult for the customers to ensure a certain level of demand over a medium term horizon as…
We propose a simple model to explore an educational phenomenon where the correct answer emerges from group discussion. We construct our model based on several plausible assumptions: (i) We tend to follow peers' opinions. However, if a…