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While death rates due to diseases of the heart have experienced a sharp decline over the past 50 years, these diseases continue to be the leading cause of death in the United States, and the rate of decline varies by geographic location,…

Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) remains the primary cause of mortality in the US. This study focuses on using spatio-temporal disease mapping models to explore the temporal trends of IHD at the county level from 1999 to 2021. To manage the…

Understanding the longitudinally changing associations between Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) and stroke mortality is essential for effective stroke management. Previous studies have uncovered significant regional disparities in the…

Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S.…

This paper analyzes mortality cohort effect of birth year and develops an approach to identify and measure cohort effects in mortality data set. The approach is based on differential geometry and leads to an explicit result which can…

Mortality patterns at a subnational level or across subpopulations are often used to examine the health of a population. In small populations, however, death counts are erratic. To deal with this problem, demographers have proposed…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…

Drug overdose mortality in the United States exhibits strong geographic heterogeneity and complex temporal evolution, yet most spatiotemporal studies focus on trends and risks without explicitly characterizing the underlying dynamical…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in…

Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

Cohort effects are important factors in determining the evolution of human mortality for certain countries. Extensions of dynamic mortality models with cohort features have been proposed in the literature to account for these factors under…

Mortality is different across countries, states and regions. Several empirical research works however reveal that mortality trends exhibit a common pattern and show similar structures across populations. The key element in analyzing…

We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…

Illness-death models are a class of stochastic models inside the multi-state framework. In those models, individuals are allowed to move over time between different states related to illness and death. They are of special interest when…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Racialized economic segregation, a key metric that simultaneously accounts for spatial, social and income polarization, has been linked to adverse health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality; however, statistical methods for…

We present an interpretable high-resolution spatio-temporal model to estimate COVID-19 deaths together with confirmed cases one-week ahead of the current time, at the county-level and weekly aggregated, in the United States. A notable…