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Related papers: Learning Granger Causality for Hawkes Processes

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Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-03-15 Jalal Etesami , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , Kushagra Singhal

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau

Granger causality analysis is a popular method for inference on directed interactions in complex systems of many variables. A shortcoming of the standard framework for Granger causality is that it only allows for examination of interactions…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2010-04-14 Adam B. Barrett , Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

Causality in time series can be challenging to determine, especially in the presence of non-linear dependencies. Granger causality helps analyze potential relationships between variables, thereby offering a method to determine whether one…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-13 Harsh Poonia , Felix Divo , Kristian Kersting , Devendra Singh Dhami

Learning the causal-interaction network of multivariate Hawkes processes is a useful task in many applications. Maximum-likelihood estimation is the most common approach to solve the problem in the presence of long observation sequences.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-04 Farnood Salehi , William Trouleau , Matthias Grossglauser , Patrick Thiran

We present a new method for forecasting systems of multiple interrelated time series. The method learns the forecast models together with discovering leading indicators from within the system that serve as good predictors improving the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-03 Magda Gregorova , Alexandros Kalousis , Stephane Marchand-Maillet

This paper considers joint learning of multiple sparse Granger graphical models to discover underlying common and differential Granger causality (GC) structures across multiple time series. This can be applied to drawing group-level brain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-25 Parinthorn Manomaisaowapak , Jitkomut Songsiri

Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-23 Chainarong Amornbunchornvej , Elena Zheleva , Tanya Y. Berger-Wolf

Important information on the structure of complex systems, consisting of more than one component, can be obtained by measuring to which extent the individual components exchange information among each other. Such knowledge is needed to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Daniele Marinazzo , Mario Pellicoro , Sebastiano Stramaglia

Granger causality, a popular method for determining causal influence between stochastic processes, is most commonly estimated via linear autoregressive modeling. However, this approach has a serious drawback: if the process being modeled…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-29 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-22 Hongteng Xu , Hongyuan Zha

Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-21 Noa Malem-Shinitski , Cesar Ojeda , Manfred Opper

Temporal point process as the stochastic process on continuous domain of time is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring with occurrence timestamps. Thanks to the strong expressivity of deep neural networks, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Haitao Lin , Cheng Tan , Lirong Wu , Zhangyang Gao , Zicheng Liu , Stan. Z. Li

We consider the problem of learning models for forecasting multiple time-series systems together with discovering the leading indicators that serve as good predictors for the system. We model the systems by linear vector autoregressive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-03 Magda Gregorova , Alexandros Kalousis , Stéphane Marchand-Maillet

With the advancement of neural networks, diverse methods for neural Granger causality have emerged, which demonstrate proficiency in handling complex data, and nonlinear relationships. However, the existing framework of neural Granger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-15 Wanqi Zhou , Shuanghao Bai , Shujian Yu , Qibin Zhao , Badong Chen

Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-22 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

Granger causal modeling is an emerging topic that can uncover Granger causal relationship behind multivariate time series data. In many real-world systems, it is common to encounter a large amount of multivariate time series data collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-11 Yunfei Chu , Xiaowei Wang , Jianxin Ma , Kunyang Jia , Jingren Zhou , Hongxia Yang

We introduce a rigorous mathematical framework for Granger causality in extremes, designed to identify causal links from extreme events in time series. Granger causality plays a pivotal role in uncovering directional relationships among…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-21 Juraj Bodik , Olivier C. Pasche

Dependence between nodes in a network is an important concept that pervades many areas including finance, politics, sociology, genomics and the brain sciences. One way to characterize dependence between components of a multivariate time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-08 Malik Shahid Sultan , Samuel Horvath , Hernando Ombao

Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological…

Applications · Statistics 2016-09-08 Lionel Barnett , Anil K. Seth