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We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-21 Julie Bessac , Emil Mihai Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

Modeling data with non-stationary covariance structure is important to represent heterogeneity in geophysical and other environmental spatial processes. In this work, we investigate a multistage approach to modeling non-stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Ashton Wiens , Douglas Nychka , William Kleibe

Multivariate spatial fields are of interest in many applications, including climate model emulation. Not only can the marginal spatial fields be subject to nonstationarity, but the dependence structure among the marginal fields and between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-21 Paul F. V. Wiemann , Matthias Katzfuss

Turbulent flows have historically presented formidable challenges to predictive computational modeling. Traditional numerical simulations often require vast computational resources, making them infeasible for numerous engineering…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-11-15 Han Gao , Xu Han , Xiantao Fan , Luning Sun , Li-Ping Liu , Lian Duan , Jian-Xun Wang

In a recent development in the literature, a new temporal rainfall model, based on the Bartlett-Lewis clustering mechanism and intended for sub-hourly application, was introduced. That model replaced the rectangular rain cells of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-23 Jo Kaczmarska , Valerie Isham , Christian Onof

Dust storms in the earth's major desert regions significantly influence microphysical weather processes, the CO$_2$-cycle and the global climate in general. Recent increases in the spatio-temporal resolution of remote sensing instruments…

Applications · Statistics 2013-08-06 Fabian E. Bachl , Alex Lenkoski , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Christoph S. Garbe

A generative diffusion model is used to produce probabilistic ensembles of precipitation intensity maps at the 1-hour 5-km resolution. The generation is conditioned on infrared and microwave radiometric measurements from the GOES and DMSP…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-26 Clement Guilloteau , Gavin Kerrigan , Kai Nelson , Giosue Migliorini , Padhraic Smyth , Runze Li , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou

Atmospheric trace-gas inversion refers to any technique used to predict spatial and temporal fluxes using mole-fraction measurements and atmospheric simulations obtained from computer models. Studies to date are most often of a…

Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socio-economic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making. State-of-the-art operational…

This study proposes two straightforward yet effective approaches to reduce the required computational time of the training process for time-series modeling through a recurrent neural network (RNN) using multi-time-scale time-series data as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-11-11 Kei Ishida , Masato Kiyama , Ali Ercan , Motoki Amagasaki , Tongbi Tu

Extreme floods cause casualties, and widespread damage to property and vital civil infrastructure. We here propose a Bayesian approach for predicting extreme floods using the generalized extreme-value (GEV) distribution within gauged and…

Combining attention with recurrence has shown to be valuable in sequence modeling, including hydrological predictions. Here, we explore the strength of Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) over Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks in…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-27 Sinan Rasiya Koya , Tirthankar Roy

Large or very large spatial (and spatio-temporal) datasets have become common place in many environmental and climate studies. These data are often collected in non-Euclidean spaces (such as the planet Earth) and they often present…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Mike Pereira , Nicolas Desassis , Denis Allard

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging problem due to the intricate entanglement of intraperiod-fluctuations and interperiod-trends. While recent advances have attempted to reshape 1D sequences into 2D period-phase…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Yixin Wang , Yifan Hu , Peiyuan Liu , Naiqi Li , Dai Tao , Shu-Tao Xia

Conditional probabilistic graphical models provide a powerful framework for structured regression in spatio-temporal datasets with complex correlation patterns. However, in real-life applications a large fraction of observations is often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-03-29 Jelena Stojanovic , Milos Jovanovic , Djordje Gligorijevic , Zoran Obradovic

Various natural phenomena exhibit spatial extremal dependence at short spatial distances. However, existing models proposed in the spatial extremes literature often assume that extremal dependence persists across the entire domain. This is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-01 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , David Bolin

Converting neutron scattering data to real-space time-dependent structures can only be achieved through suitable models, which is particularly challenging for geometrically disordered structures. We address this problem by introducing…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2021-07-28 Cedric J. Gommes , Reiner Zorn , Sebastian Jaksch , Henrich Frielinghaus , Olaf Holderer

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-25 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Thomas B. Schön

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-04 Griffin Mooers , Tom Beucler , Mike Pritchard , Stephan Mandt

In the first part of our study, we demonstrated how a simple physical benchmark model can be used to assess assumptions of the conceptual models, based on a lumped Probability Distributed Model (PDM) formulated by Lamb (1999). In this…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-12-05 Piotr Morawiecki , Philippe H. Trinh