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We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Markus Kaiser , Clemens Otte , Thomas Runkler , Carl Henrik Ek

Animals learn the timing between consecutive events very easily. Their precision is usually proportional to the interval to time (Weber's law for timing). Most current timing models either require a central clock and unbounded accumulator…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2011-03-15 Francois Rivest , Yoshua Bengio

This work develops a flexible inferential framework for nonparametric causal inference in time-to-event settings, based on stochastic interventions defined through multiplicative scaling of the intensity governing an intermediate event…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Helene Charlotte Wiese Rytgaard , Mark van der Laan

Perception of time from sequentially acquired sensory inputs is rooted in everyday behaviors of individual organisms. Yet, most algorithms for time-series modeling fail to learn dynamics of random event timings directly from visual or audio…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Hengguan Huang , Hongfu Liu , Hao Wang , Chang Xiao , Ye Wang

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-12-14 Hao Huang , Qian Yan , Keqi Han , Ting Gan , Jiawei Jiang , Quanqing Xu , Chuanhui Yan

Observational studies are often conducted to estimate causal effects of treatments or exposures on event-time outcomes. Since treatments are not randomized in observational studies, techniques from causal inference are required to adjust…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-23 Han Ji , Arman Oganisian

Many complex diseases are known to be affected by the interactions between genetic variants and environmental exposures beyond the main genetic and environmental effects. Study of gene-environment (G$\times$E) interactions is important for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-01 Jie Ren , Fei Zhou , Xiaoxi Li , Qi Chen , Hongmei Zhang , Shuangge Ma , Yu Jiang , Cen Wu

With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-08 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

The performances of a new data processing technique, namely the Empirical Mode Decomposition, are evaluated on a fully developed turbulent velocity signal perturbed by a numerical forcing which mimics a long-period flapping. First, we…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2015-05-20 Nicolas Mazellier , Fabrice Foucher

Learning dynamical systems from incomplete or noisy data is inherently ill-posed, as a single observation may correspond to multiple plausible futures. While physics-based ensemble forecasting relies on perturbing initial states to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-27 Siddharth Rout , Eldad Haber , Stephane Gaudreault

We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 David Tolpin

In this publication, we combine two Bayesian non-parametric models: the Gaussian Process (GP) and the Dirichlet Process (DP). Our innovation in the GP model is to introduce a variation on the GP prior which enables us to model structured…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-15 James Hensman , Magnus Rattray , Neil D. Lawrence

Training data attribution (TDA) techniques find influential training data for the model's prediction on the test data of interest. They approximate the impact of down- or up-weighting a particular training sample. While conceptually useful,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 Elisa Nguyen , Minjoon Seo , Seong Joon Oh

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-13 Wen-Hsi Yang , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

This paper shows how a time series of measurements of an evolving system can be processed to create an inner time series that is unaffected by any instantaneous invertible, possibly nonlinear transformation of the measurements. An inner…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-28 David N. Levin

Bursting cells lead to ambient RNA that contaminates sequencing data. This process is especially problematic in perturbation experiments where transcription factors are implanted into cells to determine their effects. The presence of…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-09-21 Forrest Sheldon

This paper proposes a flexible framework for inferring large-scale time-varying and time-lagged correlation networks from multivariate or high-dimensional non-stationary time series with piecewise smooth trends. Built on a novel and unified…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-13 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

Synchrophasor data provide unprecedented opportunities for inferring power system dynamics, such as estimating voltage angles, frequencies, and accelerations along with power injection at all buses. Aligned to this goal, this work puts…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-14 Mana Jalali , Vassilis Kekatos , Siddharth Bhela , Hao Zhu , Virgilio Centeno

Analysis of observational studies increasingly confronts the challenge of determining which of a possibly high-dimensional set of available covariates are required to satisfy the assumption of ignorable treatment assignment for estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-23 Chanmin Kim , Mauricio Tec , Corwin M Zigler

Many studies of biomedical time series signals aim to measure the association between frequency-domain properties of time series and clinical and behavioral covariates. However, the time-varying dynamics of these associations are largely…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-05 Scott A. Bruce , Martica H. Hall , Daniel J. Buysse , Robert T. Krafty
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