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Instrumental variables (IVs) are widely used to estimate causal effects from non-randomized data. A canonical example is a randomized trial with noncompliance, in which the randomized treatment assignment serves as an IV for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-06 Rui Wang , Ying-Qi Zhao , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang

One obstacle to ``elevating" correlation to causation is the phenomenon of confounding, i.e., when a correlation between two variables exists because both variables are in fact caused by a third variable. The situation where the confounders…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-24 Caren Marzban , Yikun Zhang , Nicholas Bond , Michael Richman

The analysis of platform trials can be enhanced by utilizing non-concurrent controls. Since including this data might also introduce bias in the treatment effect estimators if time trends are present, methods for incorporating…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Pavla Krotka , Martin Posch , Marta Bofill Roig

Two-stage least squares (TSLS) estimators and variants thereof are widely used to infer the effect of an exposure on an outcome using instrumental variables (IVs). They belong to a wider class of two-stage IV estimators, which are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-08 Stijn Vansteelandt , Vanessa Didelez

Instrumental variable methods are often used for parameter estimation in the presence of confounding. They can also be applied in stochastic processes. Instrumental variable analysis exploits moment equations to obtain estimators for causal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-22 Søren Wengel Mogensen

Imitation learning from demonstrations usually suffers from the confounding effects of unmeasured variables (i.e., unmeasured confounders) on the states and actions. If ignoring them, a biased estimation of the policy would be entailed. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Yan Zeng , Shenglan Nie , Feng Xie , Libo Huang , Peng Wu , Zhi Geng

This paper provides a general framework for testing instrument validity in heterogeneous causal effect models. The generalization includes the cases where the treatment can be multivalued ordered or unordered. Based on a series of testable…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-11 Zhenting Sun

Suppose one is interested in estimating causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding with the aid of a valid instrumental variable. This paper investigates the problem of making inferences about the average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 BaoLuo Sun , Wang Miao

In Randomised Controlled Trials (RCT) with treatment non-compliance, instrumental variable approaches are used to estimate complier average causal effects. We extend these approaches to cost-effectiveness analyses, where methods need to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-02 Karla DiazOrdaz , Angelo Franchini , Richard Grieve

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Many policy evaluations occur in settings where treatment is randomized at the cluster level, and there is treatment noncompliance within each cluster. For example, villages might be assigned to treatment and control, but residents in each…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-16 Hyunseung Kang , Luke Keele

We offer straightforward theoretical results that justify incorporating machine learning in the standard linear instrumental variable setting. The key idea is to use machine learning, combined with sample-splitting, to predict the treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-06-22 Jiafeng Chen , Daniel L. Chen , Greg Lewis

In this work, the issue of obtaining consistent parameter estimators for nonlinear regression models where the regressors are second-order modulus functions is explored. It is shown that consistent instrumental variable estimators can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 Fredrik Ljungberg , Martin Enqvist

Instrumental variable based estimation of a causal effect has emerged as a standard approach to mitigate confounding bias in the social sciences and epidemiology, where conducting randomized experiments can be too costly or impossible.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Danielle Tsao , Krikamol Muandet , Frederick Eberhardt , Emilija Perković

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-04 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Thuc Duy Le

We address the problem of causal effect estimation in the presence of hidden confounders using nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) regression. An established approach is to use estimators based on learned spectral features, that is,…

Instrumental variables (IVs) are often continuous, arising in diverse fields such as economics, epidemiology, and the social sciences. Existing approaches for continuous IVs typically impose strong parametric models or assume homogeneous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Mei Dong , Lin Liu , Dingke Tang , Geoffrey Liu , Wei Xu , Linbo Wang

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

Empirical researchers are often interested in not only whether a treatment affects an outcome of interest, but also how the treatment effect arises. Causal mediation analysis provides a formal framework to identify causal mechanisms through…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-01 Bora Kim

The instrumental variable method is a prominent approach to recover under certain conditions, valid inference about a treatment causal effect even when unmeasured confounding might be present. In a groundbreaking paper, Imbens and Angrist…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen
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