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Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Uncertainties of fission fraction is an important uncertainty source for the antineutrino flux prediction in a reactor antineutrino experiment. A new MC-based method of evaluating the covariance coefficients between isotopes was proposed.…

The background index is an important quantity which is used in projecting and calculating the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-beta decay ($0\nu\beta\beta$) experiments. A novel analysis framework is presented to calculate the…

In the paper, it is discussed by using Monte-Carlo simulation that the Bayesian Neural Network(BNN) is applied to determine neutrino incoming direction in reactor neutrino experiments and supernova explosion location by scintillator…

The summation method for the calculation of reactor $\bar{\nu}_e$ fluxes and spectra is methodically revised and improved. For the first time, a complete uncertainty budget accounting for all known effects likely to impact these…

We present a Monte Carlo method for direct incorporation of nuclear inputs in primordial nucleosynthesis calculations. This method is intended to remedy shortcomings of current error estimation, by eliminating intermediate data evaluations…

We describe the Bedside Patient Rescue (BPR) project, the goal of which is risk prediction of adverse events for non-ICU patients using ~200 variables (vitals, lab results, assessments, ...). There are several missing predictor values for…

A key quantity of interest in Bayesian inference are expectations of functions with respect to a posterior distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a fundamental tool to consistently compute these expectations via averaging samples drawn…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Biopharmaceutical products, particularly monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), have gained prominence in the pharmaceutical market due to their high specificity and efficacy. As these products are projected to constitute a substantial portion of…

We propose to integrate weapon system features (such as weapon system manufacturer, deployment time and location, storage time and location, etc.) into a parameterized Cox-Weibull [1] reliability model via a neural network, like DeepSurv…

The quantification of myocardial perfusion MRI has the potential to provide a fast, automated and user-independent assessment of myocardial ischaemia. However, due to the relatively high noise level and low temporal resolution of the…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

Bayesian inference is a popular approach to calibrating uncertainties, but it can underpredict such uncertainties when model misspecification is present, impacting its reliability to inform decision making. Recently, the statistics and…

The closed-loop performance of model predictive controllers (MPCs) is sensitive to the choice of prediction models, controller formulation, and tuning parameters. However, prediction models are typically optimized for prediction accuracy…

Computer vision leveraging deep learning has achieved significant success in the last decade. Despite the promising performance of the existing deep models in the recent literature, the extent of models' reliability remains unknown.…

We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…

Probabilistic programs with dynamic computation graphs can define measures over sample spaces with unbounded dimensionality, which constitute programmatic analogues to Bayesian nonparametrics. Owing to the generality of this model class,…

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes' theorem and thus provides a means to directly sample the underlying…