Related papers: Patterns of mast fruiting - a stochastic approach
Survival analysis studies and predicts the time of death, or other singular unrepeated events, based on historical data, while the true time of death for some instances is unknown. Survival trees enable the discovery of complex nonlinear…
Random survival forest and survival trees are popular models in statistics and machine learning. However, there is a lack of general understanding regarding consistency, splitting rules and influence of the censoring mechanism. In this…
In this manuscript we investigate the long-term behavior of a single-species fishery, which is harvested by several fleets. The time evolution of this population is modeled by a discrete time stochastic age-structured model. We assume that…
In subdivided populations, migration acts together with selection and genetic drift and determines their evolution. Building up on a recently proposed method, which hinges on the emergence of a time scale separation between local and global…
We consider a population model where individuals behave independently from each other and whose genealogy is described by a chronological tree called splitting tree. The individuals have i.i.d. (non-exponential) lifetime durations and give…
We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was…
1. Temporal trends in species distributions are necessary for monitoring changes in biodiversity, which aids policymakers and conservationists in making informed decisions. Dynamic species distribution models are often fitted to ecological…
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or…
We construct a pathwise formulation of a growing population of cells, based on two different samplings of lineages within the population, namely the forward and backward samplings. We show that a general symmetry relation, called…
We develop a finite-sample, design-based theory for random forests in which each tree is a randomized conditional predictor acting on fixed covariates and the forest is their Monte Carlo average. An exact variance identity separates Monte…
Using a lattice model based on Monte Carlo simulations, we study the role of the reproduction pattern on the fate of an evolving population. Each individual is under the selection pressure from the environment and random mutations. The…
Recent studies have adopted an approach of selecting accurate and diverse trees based on individual or collective performance within an ensemble for classification and regression problems. This work follows in the wake of these…
Mating preferences of many biological species are not constant but season-dependent. Within the framework of evolutionary game theory this can be modeled with two finite opposite-sex populations playing against each other following the…
A general procedure to formulate asexual (unstructured, deterministic) population dynamical models resulting from individual pairwise interactions is proposed. Individuals are characterized by a continuous strategy that represents all their…
Despite their remarkable effectiveness and broad application, the drivers of success underlying ensembles of trees are still not fully understood. In this paper, we highlight how interpreting tree ensembles as adaptive and self-regularizing…
Natural selection and random drift are competing phenomena for explaining the evolution of populations. Combining a highly fit mutant with a population structure that improves the odds that the mutant spreads through the whole population…
There are numerous randomized algorithms to generate spanning trees in a given ambient graph; several target the uniform distribution on trees (UST), while in practice the fastest and most frequently used draw random weights on the edges…
Disentangling the processes leading populations to extinction is a major topic in ecology and conservation biology. The difficulty to find a mate in many species is one of these processes. Here, we investigate the impact of…
CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we…
Combinatorial trees can be used to represent genealogies of asexual individuals. These individuals can be endowed with birth and death times, to obtain a so-called `chronological tree'. In this work, we are interested in the continuum…