Related papers: P-values: misunderstood and misused
The influential claim that most published results are false raised concerns about the trustworthiness and integrity of science. Since then, there have been numerous attempts to examine the rate of false-positive results that have failed to…
False discovery rates (FDR) are an essential component of statistical inference, representing the propensity for an observed result to be mistaken. FDR estimates should accompany observed results to help the user contextualize the relevance…
This paper develops an interpretive framework for divergence P-values and S-values within a descriptive frequentist perspective. Statistical analysis is framed as operating within idealized worlds defined by a set of assumptions and a…
We introduce the notion of p*-values (p*-variables), which generalizes p-values (p-variables) in several senses. The new notion has four natural interpretations: operational, probabilistic, Bayesian, and frequentist. A main example of a…
We show that publishing results using the statistical significance filter---publishing only when the p-value is less than 0.05---leads to a vicious cycle of overoptimistic expectation of the replicability of results. First, we show…
The concept of intrinsic credibility has been recently introduced to check the credibility of "out of the blue" findings without any prior support. A significant result is deemed intrinsically credible if it is in conflict with a sceptical…
Evaluating the joint significance of covariates is of fundamental importance in a wide range of applications. To this end, p-values are frequently employed and produced by algorithms that are powered by classical large-sample asymptotic…
In a recent opinion article, Muff et al. recapitulate well-known objections to the Neyman-Pearson Null-Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) framework and call for reforming our practices in statistical reporting. We agree with them on…
This article gives a survey of the e-value, a statistical significance measure a.k.a. the evidence rendered by observational data, X, in support of a statistical hypothesis, H, or, the other way around, the epistemic value of H given X. The…
We discuss systematically two versions of confidence regions: those based on p-values and those based on e-values, a recent alternative to p-values. Both versions can be applied to multiple hypothesis testing, and in this paper we are…
Research often necessitates of samples, yet obtaining large enough samples is not always possible. When it is, the researcher may use one of two methods for deciding upon the required sample size: rules-of-thumb, quick yet uncertain, and…
This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…
We present the expected values from p-value hacking as a choice of the minimum p-value among $m$ independents tests, which can be considerably lower than the "true" p-value, even with a single trial, owing to the extreme skewness of the…
Null hypothesis statistical significance testing (NHST) is the dominant approach for evaluating results from randomized controlled trials. Whereas NHST comes with long-run error rate guarantees, its main inferential tool -- the $p$-value --…
Posterior predictive p-values are a common approach to Bayesian model-checking. This article analyses their frequency behaviour, that is, their distribution when the parameters and the data are drawn from the prior and the model…
The usual procedure for estimating the significance of a peak in a power spectrum is to calculate the probability of obtaining that value or a larger value by chance (known as the "p-value"), on the assumption that the time series contains…
A new standard is proposed for the evidential assessment of replication studies. The approach combines a specific reverse-Bayes technique with prior-predictive tail probabilities to define replication success. The method gives rise to a…
A large fraction of papers in the climate literature includes erroneous uses of significance tests. A Bayesian analysis is presented to highlight the meaning of significance tests and why typical misuse occurs. It is concluded that a…
Statistical significance of both the original and the replication study is a commonly used criterion to assess replication attempts, also known as the two-trials rule in drug development. However, replication studies are sometimes conducted…
Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an…