Related papers: Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian C…
This contribution is concerned with mathematical models for the dynamics of the genetic composition of populations evolving under recombination. Recombination is the genetic mechanism by which two parent individuals create the mixed type of…
Important objectives in cancer research are the prediction of a patient's risk based on molecular measurements such as gene expression data and the identification of new prognostic biomarkers (e.g. genes). In clinical practice, this is…
We dedicate this paper to Sir John Kingman on his 70th Birthday. In modern mathematical population genetics the ancestral history of a population of genes back in time is described by John Kingman's coalescent tree. Classical and modern…
Estimating the marginal and joint densities of the long-term average intakes of different dietary components is an important problem in nutritional epidemiology. Since these variables cannot be directly measured, data are usually collected…
Evolution has fascinated quantitative and physical scientists for decades: how can the random process of mutation, recombination, and duplication of genetic information generate the diversity of life? What determines the rate of evolution?…
The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…
Consider a haploid population which has evolved through an exchangeable reproduction dynamics, and in which all individuals alive at time $t$ have a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) who lived at time $A_t$, say. As time goes on, not only…
With novel developments in sequencing technologies, time-sampled data are becoming more available and accessible. Naturally, there have been efforts in parallel to infer population genetic parameters from these datasets. Here, we compare…
We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…
The population size has far-reaching effects on the fitness of the population, that, in its turn influences the population extinction or persistence. Understanding the density- and age-dependent factors will facilitate more accurate…
Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many contact surveys have been conducted to measure changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. These…
We explore the complex dynamical behavior of two simple predator-prey models of biological coevolution that on the ecological level account for interspecific and intraspecific competition, as well as adaptive foraging behavior. The…
We investigate the genealogy of a sample of $k\geq1$ particles chosen uniformly without replacement from a population alive at large times in a critical discrete-time Galton-Watson process in a varying environment (GWVE). We will show that…
Consider a population of fixed size that evolves over time. At each time, the genealogical structure of the population can be described by a coalescent tree whose branches are traced back to the most recent common ancestor of the…
1 Sharp prediction of extinction times is needed in biodiversity monitoring and conservation management. 2 The Galton-Watson process is a classical stochastic model for describing population dynamics. Its evolution is like the matrix…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
Motivated by the wide range of known self-replicating systems, some far from genetics, we study a system composed by individuals having an internal dynamics with many possible states that are partially stable, with varying mutation rates.…
We consider the evolution of populations under the joint action of mutation and differential reproduction, or selection. The population is modelled as a finite-type Markov branching process in continuous time, and the associated…
Understanding patterns of selectively neutral genetic variation is essential in order to model deviations from neutrality, caused for example by different forms of selection. Best understood is neutral genetic variation at a single locus,…
Estimating the size of an elusive target population is of prominent interest in many areas in the life and social sciences. Our aim is to provide an efficient and workable method to estimate the unknown population size, given the frequency…