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Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…
In this paper we consider a compound Poisson risk model with regularly varying claim sizes. For this model in [1] an asymptotic formula for the finite time ruin probability is provided when the time is scaled by the mean excess function. In…
This article concerns the tail probabilities of a light-tailed Markov-modulated L\'evy process stopped at a state-dependent Poisson rate. The tails are shown to decay exponentially at rates given by the unique positive and negative roots of…
In this paper, we establish a sufficient condition to compare linear combinations of independent and identically distributed (iid) infinite-mean random variables under usual stochastic order. We introduce a new class of distributions that…
In this paper, we study the fluctuations of sums of random variables with distribution defined as a mixture of light-tail and truncated heavy-tail distributions. We focus on the case when both the mixing coefficient and the truncation level…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
We study a multidimensional renewal risk model, with common counting process and cadlag returns. Considering that the claim vectors have common distribution from some multivariate distribution class with heavy tail, are mutually weakly…
This paper focuses on a discrete-time risk model in which both insurance risk and financial risk are taken into account. We study the asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability and the tail probability of the aggregate risk amount.…
In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…
We consider random vectors $X$ that satisfy the equation in law $X=AX+B$, where $A$ is a given random diagonal matrix and $B$ a given random vector, both independent of $X$. It is well known by the works of Kesten and Goldie that the…
Let S_k be the k-th partial sum of Banach space valued independent identically distributed random variables. In this paper, we compare the tail distribution of ||S_k|| with that of ||S_j||, and deduce some tail distribution maximal…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the product tail probability $ \mathbb{P}(\xi_1\cdots\xi_N \geqslant n), $ where $\{\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_N\}$ is a finite collection of independent Poisson random variables with positive…
This paper contains sharp estimates about the distribution of multiple random integrals of functions of several variables with respect to a normalized empirical measure, about the distribution of U-statistics and multiple Wiener-Ito…
This book chapter illustrates how to apply extreme value statistics to financial time series data. Such data often exhibits strong serial dependence, which complicates assessment of tail risks. We discuss the two main approches to tail risk…
In this paper the following result, which allows one to decouple U-Statistics in tail probability, is proved in full generality. Theorem 1. Let $X_i$ be a sequence of independent random variables taking values in a measure space $S$, and…
Due to globalization and relaxed market regulation, we have assisted to an increasing of extremal dependence in international markets. As a consequence, several measures of tail dependence have been stated in literature in recent years,…
Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent random variables with corresponding distributions $F$ and $G$ supported on $[0,\infty)$. The distribution of the product $XY$, which is called the product convolution of $F$ and $G$, is denoted by $H$. In…
Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also…
A scan statistic is examined for the purpose of testing the existence of a global peak in a random process with dependent variables of any distribution. The scan statistic tail probability is obtained based on the covariance of the moving…
We investigate the ordering between two fundamental measures of dispersion for real-valued risks: the standard deviation (SD) and the Gini mean difference (GMD). Our analysis is driven by a single structural object, namely the mean excess…