Related papers: Speculative Futures Trading under Mean Reversion
This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…
We consider a real options model for the optimal irreversible investment problem of a profit maximizing company. The company has the opportunity to invest into a production plant capable of producing two products, of which the prices follow…
The duality between the robust (or equivalently, model independent) hedging of path dependent European options and a martingale optimal transport problem is proved. The financial market is modeled through a risky asset whose price is only…
Explicit robust hedging strategies for convex or concave payoffs under a continuous semimartingale model with uncertainty and small transaction costs are constructed. In an asymptotic sense, the upper and lower bounds of the cumulative…
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits…
We provide a complete representation of the interest rate in the extended CIR model. Since it was proved in Maghsoodi (1996) that the representation of the CIR process as a sum of squares of independent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes is…
We introduce and treat rigorously a new multi-agent model of the continuous double auction or in other words the order book (OB). It is designed to explain collective behaviour of the market when new information affecting the market…
We consider a method of lines (MOL) approach to determine prices of European and American exchange options when underlying asset prices are modelled with stochastic volatility and jump-diffusion dynamics. As the MOL, as with any other…
We consider the infinite dimensional Heston stochastic volatility model proposed in \arXiv:1706:03500. The price of a forward contract on a non-storable commodity is modelled by a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in the Filipovi\'{c}…
We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) theory to financial tick data of the bond futures transacted in Korean Futures Exchange (KOFEX) market. For our case, the tick dynamical behaviors of the returns and…
We model the time evolution of single win odds in Japanese horse racing as a stochastic process, deriving an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process by analyzing the probability dynamics of vote shares and the empirical time series of odds movements.…
In stochastic multi-factor commodity models, it is often the case that futures prices are explained by two latent state variables which represent the short and long term stochastic factors. In this work, we develop the family of stochastic…
In this paper, we consider a stochastic asset price model where the trend is an unobservable Ornstein Uhlenbeck process. We first review some classical results from Kalman filtering. Expectedly, the choice of the parameters is crucial to…
A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive…
We present a multivariate stochastic volatility model with leverage, which is flexible enough to recapture the individual dynamics as well as the interdependencies between several assets while still being highly analytically tractable.…
We propose a general framework of European power option pricing under two different market assumptions about extended Vasic\v{e}k interest rate process and exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck asset process with continuous dividend as underlying,…
Volatility modelling has become a significant area of research within Financial Mathematics. Wiener process driven stochastic volatility models have become popular due their consistency with theoretical arguments and empirical observations.…
We investigate upper and lower hedging prices of multivariate contingent claims from the viewpoint of game-theoretic probability and submodularity. By considering a game between "Market" and "Investor" in discrete time, the pricing problem…
This paper introduces an information-based model for the pricing of storable commodities such as crude oil and natural gas. The model uses the concept of market information about future supply and demand as a basis for valuation. Physical…
We price European and American exchange options where the underlying asset prices are modelled using a Merton (1976) jump-diffusion with a common Heston (1993) stochastic volatility process. Pricing is performed under an equivalent…