Related papers: Goodness-of-fit statistics for approximate Bayesia…

A set of probabilistic predictions is well calibrated if the events that are predicted to occur with probability p do in fact occur about p fraction of the time. Well calibrated predictions are particularly important when machine learning…

The goal of this paper is to compare several widely used Bayesian model selection methods in practical model selection problems, highlight their differences and give recommendations about the preferred approaches. We focus on the variable…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly.…

A computationally simple approach to inference in state space models is proposed, using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of an intractable likelihood by matching summary statistics for the observed data with…

Bayesian optimal design is a well-established approach to planning experiments. A distribution for the responses, i.e. a statistical model, is assumed which is dependent on unknown parameters. A utility function is then specified giving…

Bayesian inference with stochastic models is often difficult because their likelihood functions involve high-dimensional integrals. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) avoids evaluating the likelihood function and instead infers model…

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Genetic data obtained on population samples convey information about their evolutionary history. Inference methods can extract this information (at least partially) but they require sophisticated statistical techniques that have been made…

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

We introduce tests for the goodness of fit of point patterns via methods from topological data analysis. More precisely, the persistent Betti numbers give rise to a bivariate functional summary statistic for observed point patterns that is…

This paper proposes a novel two-step strategy for testing the goodness-of-fit of parametric regression models in ultra-high dimensional sparse settings, where the predictor dimension far exceeds the sample size. This regime usually renders…

We introduce a new statistical test based on the observed spacings of ordered data. The statistic is sensitive to detect non-uniformity in random samples, or short-lived features in event time series. Under some conditions, this new test…

The goal of this paper is to explore the basic Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithm via the lens of information theory. ABC is a widely used algorithm in cases where the likelihood of the data is hard to work with or…

We discuss a goodness-of-fit method which tests the compatibility between statistically independent data sets. The method gives sensible results even in cases where the chi^2-minima of the individual data sets are very low or when several…

We provide another look at the statistical calibration problem in computer models. This viewpoint is inspired by two overarching practical considerations of computer models: (i) many computer models are inadequate for perfectly modeling…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a set of techniques for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible. This work presents a simple yet effective ABC algorithm based on the…

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

The Bayes factor is the gold-standard figure of merit for comparing fits of models to data, for hypothesis selection and parameter estimation. However it is little used because it is computationally very intensive. Here it is shown how…