Related papers: An Analytic Expression for the Distribution of the…
We consider the quickest change-point detection problem where the aim is to detect the onset of a pre-specified drift in "live"-monitored standard Brownian motion; the change-point is assumed unknown (nonrandom). The object of interest is…
Change-of-measure is a powerful technique used across statistics, probability and analysis. Particularly known as Wald's likelihood ratio identity, the technique enabled the proof of a number of exact and asymptotic optimality results…
We consider the diffusion $(R_t^r)_{t\ge0}$ generated by the equation $dR_t^r=dt+\mu R_t^r dB_t$ with $R_0^r\triangleq r\ge0$ fixed, and where $\mu\neq0$ is given, and $(B_t)_{t\ge0}$ is standard Brownian motion. We assume that…
We propose a numerical method to evaluate the performance of the emerging Generalized Shiryaev--Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure in a "minimax-ish" multi-cyclic setup where the procedure of choice is applied repetitively…
We consider the classical Shiryaev--Roberts martingale diffusion, $(R_t)_{t\ge0}$, restricted to the interval $[0,A]$, where $A>0$ is a preset absorbing boundary. We take yet another look at the well-known phenomenon of quasi-stationarity…
In this paper we give a solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a multivariate L\'evy process consisting of both continuous (Gaussian) and jump components in the Bayesian approach. We do it for a general 0-modified…
The problem of detecting a change in the drift of a Brownian motion is considered. The change point is assumed to have a modified exponential prior distribution with unknown parameters. A worst-case analysis with respect to these parameters…
The gist of the quickest change-point detection problem is to detect the presence of a change in the statistical behavior of a series of sequentially made observations, and do so in an optimal detection-speed-vs.-"false-positive"-risk…
We derive analytically an exact closed-form formula for the standard minimax Average Run Length (ARL) to false alarm delivered by the Generalized Shiryaev-Roberts (GSR) change-point detection procedure devised to detect a shift in the…
In this paper we give solution to the quickest drift change detection problem for a L\'evy process consisting of both a continuous Gaussian part and a jump component. We consider here Bayesian framework with an exponential a priori…
This paper investigates change point detection in state space models, in which the pre-change distribution $f^{\theta_0}$ is given, while the poster distribution $f^{\theta}$ after change is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon…
We develop numerical methods for computing statistics of stochastic processes on surfaces of general shape with drift-diffusion dynamics $d\mathbf{X}_t = a(\mathbf{X}_t)dt + \mathbf{b}(\mathbf{X}_t)d\mathbf{W}_t$. We formulate descriptions…
This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of…
The paper addresses a sequential changepoint detection problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be non-i.i.d. (i.e., dependent and non-identically distributed) and the prior distribution of the change…
The aim of this paper is to propose diffusion strategies for distributed estimation over adaptive networks, assuming the presence of spatially correlated measurements distributed according to a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) model. The…
We study the maximum likelihood estimator of the drift parameters of a stochastic differential equation, with both drift and diffusion coefficients constant on the positive and negative axis, yet discontinuous at zero. This threshold…
Using a probabilistic neural network and Lagrangian observations from the Global Drifter Program, we model the single particle transition probability density function (pdf) of ocean surface drifters. The transition pdf is represented by a…
The notion of drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time. Albeit many attempts were made to deal with drift, formal notions of drift are application-dependent and…
We study efficiency of non-parametric estimation of diffusions (stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion) from long stationary trajectories. First, we introduce estimators based on conditional expectation which is…
A rapidly increasing number of systems is identified in which the stochastic motion of tracer particles follows the Brownian law $\langle\mathbf{r}^2(t) \rangle\simeq Dt$ yet the distribution of particle displacements is strongly…