Related papers: International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Mode…
Maritime shipping is a backbone of international trade and, thus, the world economy. Cargo-loaded vessels travel from one country's port to another via an underlying port-to-port transport network, contributing to international trade values…
We present a methodology for representing probabilistic relationships in a general-equilibrium economic model. Specifically, we define a precise mapping from a Bayesian network with binary nodes to a market price system where consumers and…
This paper considers trial-offer markets where consumer preferences are modeled by a multinomial logit with social influence and position bias. The social signal for a product is given by its current market share raised to power r (or…
With globalization, countries are more connected than before by trading flows, which currently amount to at least 36 trillion dollars. Interestingly, approximately 30-60 percent of global exports consist of intermediate products. Therefore,…
P\'{o}lya urn is a stochastic process in which balls are randomly drawn from an urn of red and blue balls, and balls of the same color as the drawn balls are added. The probability of a ball of a certain color being drawn is equal to the…
An urn model of Diaconis and some generalizations are discussed. A convergence theorem is proved that implies for Diaconis' model that the empirical distribution of balls in the urn converges with probability one to the uniform…
Recurrent or ephemeral water shortages are a crucial global challenge, in particular because of their impacts on food production. The global character of this challenge is reflected in the trade among nations of virtual water, i.e. the…
Urn models play an important role to express various basic ideas in probability theory. Here we extend this urn model with tubes. An urn contains coloured balls, which can be drawn with probabilities proportional to the numbers of balls of…
Trade is a fundamental pillar of economy and a form of social organization. Its empirical characterization at the worldwide scale is represented by the World Trade Web (WTW), the network built upon the trade relationships between the…
In this paper, we introduce a novel reinforcement learning framework for optimal trade execution in a limit order book. We formulate the trade execution problem as a dynamic allocation task whose objective is the optimal placement of market…
We consider systems of interacting Generalized Friedman's Urns (GFUs) having irreducible mean replacement matrices. The interaction is modeled through the probability to sample the colors from each urn, that is defined as convex combination…
We study the link between political influence and industrial concentration. We present a joint model of political influence and market competition: an oligopoly lobbies the government over regulation, and competes in the product market…
Social networks often exert social pressure, causing individuals to adapt their expressed opinions to conform to their peers. An agent in such systems can be modeled as having a (true and unchanging) inherent belief while broadcasting a…
Due to economic globalization, each country's economic law, including tax laws and tax treaties, has been forced to work as a single network. However, each jurisdiction (country or region) has not made its economic law under the assumption…
In contrast to the rapid integration of the world economy, many regional trade agreements (RTAs) have also emerged since the early 1990s. This seeming contradiction has encouraged scholars and policy makers to explore the true effects of…
An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control…
We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary…
In this paper, we introduce the Iterative Persuasion-Polarization (IPP) model to study the dynamics of opinion formation and change within a population. The IPP model integrates mechanisms of persuasion and repulsion, where individuals…
We introduce a method to infer lead-lag networks of agents' actions in complex systems. These networks open the way to both microscopic and macroscopic states prediction in such systems. We apply this method to trader-resolved data in the…
International trade research plays an important role to inform trade policy and shed light on wider issues relating to poverty, development, migration, productivity, and economy. With recent advances in information technology, global and…