Related papers: International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Mode…
The World Trade Web (WTW) is a weighted network whose nodes correspond to countries with edge weights reflecting the value of imports and/or exports between countries. In this paper we introduce to this macroeconomic system the notion of…
This paper introduces and analyzes a particular class of Polya urns: balls are of two colors, can only be added (the urns are said to be additive) and at every step the same constant number of balls is added, thus only the color…
Many social, technological and biological interactions involve network relationships whose outcome intimately depends on the structure of the network and on the strengths of the connections. Yet, although much information is now available…
We show how the Shannon entropy function can be used as a basis to set up complexity measures weighting the economic efficiency of countries and the specialization of products beyond bare diversification. This entropy function guarantees…
An economic system is an exemplar of a complex system in which all agents interact simultaneously. Interactions between countries have generally been studied using the flow of resources across diverse trade networks, in which the degree of…
Adaptive randomly reinforced urn (ARRU) is a two-color urn model where the updating process is defined by a sequence of non-negative random vectors $\{(D_{1,n}, D_{2,n});n\geq1\}$ and randomly evolving thresholds which utilize accruing…
This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify…
Pair trading is one of the most effective statistical arbitrage strategies which seeks a neutral profit by hedging a pair of selected assets. Existing methods generally decompose the task into two separate steps: pair selection and trading.…
This paper explores the gain maximization problem of two nations engaging in non-cooperative bilateral trade. Probabilistic model of an exchange of commodities under different price systems is considered. Volume of commodities exchanged…
This paper extends the link between stochastic approximation (SA) theory and randomized urn models developed in Laruelle, Pag{\`e}s (2013), and their applications to clinical trials introduced in Bai, HU (1999,2005) and Bai, Hu, Shen…
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However,…
Based on the approach of flow distances, the international trade flow system is studied from the perspective of multi-layer flow network. A model of multi-layer flow network is proposed for modelling and analyzing multiple types of flows in…
In this paper, we analyze the effect of a policy recommendation on the performance of an artificial interbank market. Financial institutions stipulate lending agreements following a public recommendation and their individual information.…
We propose an approach to analyze the asymptotic behavior of P\'olya urns based on the contraction method. For this, a new combinatorial discrete time embedding of the evolution of the urn into random rooted trees is developed. A…
There is growing evidence of systematic attempts to influence democratic elections by controlled and digitally organized dissemination of fake news. This raises the question of the intrinsic robustness of democratic electoral processes…
We consider a special case of the generalized P\'{o}lya's urn model introduced by Benaim et al (2013). Given a finite connected graph $G$, place a bin at each vertex. Two bins are called a pair if they share an edge of $G$. At discrete…
Much of the analysis of economic growth has focused on the study of aggregate output. Here, we deviate from this tradition and look instead at the structure of output embodied in the network connecting countries to the products that they…
This paper concerns the long term behaviour of a growth model describing a random sequential allocation of particles on a finite cycle graph. The model can be regarded as a reinforced urn model with graph-based interactions. It is motivated…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database \cite{comtrade} we construct the Google matrix $G$ of multiproduct world trade between the UN countries and analyze the properties of trade flows on this network for years 1962 - 2010. This…
Can trade integration induce product innovation? I document that countries that joined the European Union (EU) started producing more product varieties, investing more in R&D, and trading more compared to candidate countries that did not…