Related papers: International Trade: a Reinforced Urn Network Mode…
This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very…
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…
We introduce a class of reinforcement models where, at each time step $t$, one first chooses a random subset $A_t$ of colours (independent of the past) from $n$ colours of balls, and then chooses a colour $i$ from this subset with…
The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing…
Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose…
We consider a system of urns of Polya-type, with balls of two colors; the reinforcement of each urn depends both on the content of the same urn and on the average content of all urns. We show that the urns synchronize almost surely, in the…
This paper develops an analytic theory for the study of some Polya urns with random rules. The idea is to extend the isomorphism theorem in Flajolet et al. (2006), which connects deterministic balanced urns to a differential system for the…
Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine…
This work deals with a system of interacting reinforced stochastic processes, where each process $X^j=(X_{n,j})_n$ is located at a vertex $j$ of a finite weighted direct graph, and it can be interpreted as the sequence of "actions" adopted…
This paper begins to explore the determinants of the topological properties of the international - trade network (ITN). We fit bilateral-trade flows using a standard gravity equation to build a "residual" ITN where trade-link weights are…
We develop a model where currency issuers provide liquidity, while users in a trade network choose currency usage for trade settlement. We identify a feedback mechanism where a user's currency preference spillovers to others and increases…
In this paper, we consider a new type of urn scheme, where the selection probabilities are proportional to a weight function, which is linear but decreasing in the proportion of existing colours. We refer to it as the \emph{negatively…
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The…
As a vital strategic resource, oil has an essential influence on the world economy, diplomacy and military development. Using oil trade data to dynamically monitor and warn about international trade risks is an urgent need. Based on the UN…
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such…
Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database [http://comtrade.un.org/db/] we construct the Google matrix of the world trade network and analyze its properties for various trade commodities for all countries and all available…
This paper studies an integrated system of political and economic systems from a systematic perspective to explore the complex interaction between them, and specially analyzes the case of the US presidential election forecasting. Based on…
The worldwide trade network has been widely studied through different data sets and network representations with a view to better understanding interactions among countries and products. Here we investigate international trade through the…
The structure of the International Trade Network (ITN), whose nodes and links represent world countries and their trade relations respectively, affects key economic processes worldwide, including globalization, economic integration,…
Motivated by recent studies of big samples, this work aims at constructing a parametric model which is characterized by the following features: (i) a "local" reinforcement, i.e. a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last…