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Markov state models (MSMs) have been successful in computing metastable states, slow relaxation timescales and associated structural changes, and stationary or kinetic experimental observables of complex molecules from large amounts of…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Frank Noe , Hao Wu , Jan-Hendrik Prinz , Nuria Plattner

Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-05-12 Marylou Gabrié , Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Atomistic simulations provide valuable insights into the physical processes governing material behavior. However, their applicability is fundamentally constrained by the limited time scales accessible to brute-force simulations. This…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-02-16 Michael Kim , Wei Cai

Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aricia Rinkens , Rodrigo L. S. Silva , Erik Quaeghebeur , Nick Jaensson , Clemens Verhoosel

In this article, we describe a {\tt R} package for sampling from an empirical likelihood-based posterior using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Empirical likelihood-based methodologies have been used in Bayesian modeling of many problems…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-09-07 Dang Trung Kien , Neo Han Wei , Sanjay Chaudhuri

We develop clustering procedures for longitudinal trajectories based on a continuous-time hidden Markov model (CTHMM) and a generalized linear observation model. Specifically in this paper, we carry out finite and infinite mixture…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , David L. Buckeridge

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Sofia Andersson , Tobias Rydén

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for $n$ observations is estimated from a random subset of $m$ observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-31 Matias Quiroz , Robert Kohn , Mattias Villani , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Recently, the Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) has become widespread as one of the more reliable approaches to efficient sample generation processes. However, HMC is difficult to sample in a multimodal posterior distribution because the HMC chain…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-22 Jonghyun Yun , Minsuk Shin , Ick Hoon Jin , Faming Liang

Two major tasks in applications of hidden Markov models are to (i) compute distributions of summary statistics of the hidden state sequence, and (ii) decode the hidden state sequence. We describe finite Markov chain imbedding (FMCI) and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-22 Zenia Elise Damgaard Bæk , Moisès Coll Macià , Laurits Skov , Asger Hobolth

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-14 Matthew Aguirre , Wenbo Sun , Jionghua , Jin , Yang Chen

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modeling sequential data, where the underlying states evolve in a stochastic manner and are only indirectly observable. Traditional HMM approaches are well-established for linear sequences,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Farzan Vafa , Sahand Hormoz

We present an efficient algorithm for the inference of stochastic block models in large networks. The algorithm can be used as an optimized Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, with a fast mixing time and a much reduced susceptibility to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-01-14 Tiago P. Peixoto

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient and effective means of sampling posterior distributions on Euclidean space, which has been extended to manifolds with boundary. However, some applications require an extension to more general…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-06-26 Vu Dinh , Arman Bilge , Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-27 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yaxian Xu

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-16 Yi-An Ma , Nicholas J. Foti , Emily B. Fox

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Daniel Frisch , Simon Maskell

Efficient sampling of many-dimensional and multimodal density functions is a task of great interest in many research fields. We describe an algorithm that allows parallelizing inherently serial Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by…

Computation · Statistics 2020-08-10 Vasyl Hafych , Philipp Eller , Oliver Schulz , Allen Caldwell

Particle filtering methods are widely applied in sequential state estimation within nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. However, the traditional particle filtering methods suffer the weight degeneracy in the high-dimensional state…

Computation · Statistics 2021-11-22 Yu Han , Kazuyuki Nakamura
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