Related papers: Bayesian subset simulation
Bayesian optimization is a popular framework for efficiently tackling black-box search problems. As a rule, these algorithms operate by iteratively choosing what to evaluate next until some predefined budget has been exhausted. We…
In the last fifteen the subset sampling method has often been used in reliability problems as a tool for calculating small probabilities. This method is extrapolating from an initial Monte Carlo estimate for the probability content of a…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a class of Bayesian inference algorithms that targets for problems with intractable or {unavailable} likelihood function. It uses synthetic data drawn from the simulation model to approximate the…
Sequential Monte Carlo samplers represent a compelling approach to posterior inference in Bayesian models, due to being parallelisable and providing an unbiased estimate of the posterior normalising constant. In this work, we significantly…
Feature selection (FS) has become an indispensable task in dealing with today's highly complex pattern recognition problems with massive number of features. In this study, we propose a new wrapper approach for FS based on binary…
Classically, Bayesian clustering interprets each component of a mixture model as a cluster. The inferred clustering posterior is highly sensitive to any inaccuracies in the kernel within each component. As this kernel is made more flexible,…
We want to select the best systems out of a given set of systems (or rank them) with respect to their expected performance. The systems allow random observations only and we assume that the joint observation of the systems has a…
Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…
Approximate Bayesian computation methods can be used to evaluate posterior distributions without having to calculate likelihoods. In this paper we discuss and apply an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method based on sequential Monte…
This paper introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and then reminds the reader of a simple Monte Carlo…
There is an increasing amount of literature focused on Bayesian computational methods to address problems with intractable likelihood. One approach is a set of algorithms known as Approximate Bayesian Computational (ABC) methods. One of the…
In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…
Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…
We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian…
We consider a Bayesian framework for estimating the sample size of a clinical trial. The new approach, called BESS, is built upon three pillars: Sample size of the trial, Evidence from the observed data, and Confidence of the final decision…
Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a widely used inference method in Bayesian statistics to bypass the point-wise computation of the likelihood. In this paper we develop theoretical bounds for the distance between the statistics used…
Weinberg (2012) described a constructive algorithm for computing the marginal likelihood, Z, from a Markov chain simulation of the posterior distribution. Its key point is: the choice of an integration subdomain that eliminates subvolumes…
Bayesian computational algorithms tend to scale poorly as data size increases. This has motivated divide-and-conquer-based approaches for scalable inference. These divide the data into subsets, perform inference for each subset in parallel,…