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It is well known that, under standard regularity conditions, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) satisfies a central limit theorem and converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable as the sample size grows. This paper…
Prompt sensitivity, which refers to how strongly the output of a large language model (LLM) depends on the exact wording of its input prompt, raises concerns among users about the LLM's stability and reliability. In this work, we consider…
A parametric theory of statistical inference is developed for the moderate deviation probability zone. The new approach to the proofs is based on the Taylor series expansion of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio based on the Hellinger…
We consider a finite sequence of random points in a finite domain of a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. The points are sequentially allocated in the domain according to a model of cooperative sequential adsorption. The main peculiarity…
We study random spatial permutations on Z^3 where each jump x -> \pi(x) is penalized by a factor exp(-T ||x-\pi(x)||^2). The system is known to exhibit a phase transition for low enough T where macroscopic cycles appear. We observe that the…
In recent years, the shortcomings of Bayesian posteriors as inferential devices have received increased attention. A popular strategy for fixing them has been to instead target a Gibbs measure based on losses that connect a parameter of…
Variable Length Memory Chains (VLMC), which are generalizations of finite order Markov chains, turn out to be an essential tool to modelize random sequences in many domains, as well as an interesting object in contemporary probability…
The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution is a two-parameter generalisation of the Poisson distribution that can be used to model data that is under- or over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. The normalizing constant…
Asymptotics of the normalizing constant is computed for a class of one parameter exponential families on permutations which includes Mallows model with Spearmans's Footrule and Spearman's Rank Correlation Statistic. The MLE, and a…
This paper is part of the ongoing effort to study high-dimensional permutations. We prove the analogue to the Erd\H{o}s-Szekeres theorem: For every $k\ge1$, every order-$n$ $k$-dimensional permutation contains a monotone subsequence of…
This paper focuses on the size-biased permutation of $n$ independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) positive random variables. This is a finite dimensional analogue of the size-biased permutation of ranked jumps of a subordinator…
The similarity between a pair of time series, i.e., sequences of indexed values in time order, is often estimated by the dynamic time warping (DTW) distance, instead of any in the well-studied family of measures including the longest common…
Variational inference has become one of the most widely used methods in latent variable modeling. In its basic form, variational inference employs a fully factorized variational distribution and minimizes its KL divergence to the posterior.…
In testing the independence of two Gaussian populations, one computes the distribution of the sample canonical correlation coefficients, given that the actual correlation is zero. The "Laplace transform" of this distribution is not only an…
We consider the nodal length $L(\lambda)$ of the restriction to a ball of radius $r_\lambda$ of a {\it Gaussian pullback monochromatic random wave} of parameter $\lambda>0$ associated with a Riemann surface $(\mathcal M,g)$ without…
A classical recursive construction for mutually orthogonal latin squares (MOLS) is shown to hold more generally for a class of permutation codes of length $n$ and minimum distance $n-1$. When such codes of length $p+1$ are included as…
Let $p$ and $q$ be probability vectors with the same entropy $h$. Denote by $B(p)$ the Bernoulli shift indexed by $\Z$ with marginal distribution $p$. Suppose that $\phi$ is a measure preserving homomorphism from $B(p)$ to $B(q)$. We prove…
An "entropy increasing to the maximum" result analogous to the entropic central limit theorem (Barron 1986; Artstein et al. 2004) is obtained in the discrete setting. This involves the thinning operation and a Poisson limit. Monotonic…
In the probability theory limit distributions (or probability measures) are often characterized by some convolution equations (factorization properties) rather than by Fourier transforms (the characteristic functionals). In fact, usually…
In recent papers it has been demonstrated that sampling a Gibbs distribution from an appropriate time-irreversible Langevin process is, from several points of view, advantageous when compared to sampling from a time-reversible one. Adding…