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We examine a distributional fixed-point equation related to a multi-type branching process that is key in the cluster sizes analysis of multivariate heavy-tailed Hawkes processes. Specifically, we explore the tail behavior of its solution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-07 Jose Blanchet , Roger J. A. Laeven , Xingyu Wang , Bert Zwart

The neural Hawkes process (Mei & Eisner, 2017) is a generative model of irregularly spaced sequences of discrete events. To handle complex domains with many event types, Mei et al. (2020a) further consider a setting in which each event in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-09 Chenghao Yang , Hongyuan Mei , Jason Eisner

The richness of many complex systems stems from the interactions among their components. The higher-order nature of these interactions, involving many units at once, and their temporal dynamics constitute crucial properties that shape the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-07-29 Marco Mancastroppa , Iacopo Iacopini , Giovanni Petri , Alain Barrat

Temporal point process serves as an essential tool for modeling time-to-event data in continuous time space. Despite having massive amounts of event sequence data from various domains like social media, healthcare etc., real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Manisha Dubey , P. K. Srijith , Maunendra Sankar Desarkar

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-08-03 Guillaume Staerman , Cédric Allain , Alexandre Gramfort , Thomas Moreau

Hypergraphs are generalisation of graphs in which a hyperedge can connect any number of vertices. It can describe n-ary relationships and high-order information among entities compared to conventional graphs. In this paper, we study the…

Databases · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Zhengyi Yang , Wenjie Zhang , Xuemin Lin , Ying Zhang , Shunyang Li

Node-link diagrams are a popular method for representing graphs that capture relationships between individuals, businesses, proteins, and telecommunication endpoints. However, node-link diagrams may fail to convey insights regarding graph…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-09-20 Paul Rosen , Mustafa Hajij , Bei Wang

Gaussian processes are a fundamental statistical tool used in a wide range of applications. In the spatio-temporal setting, several families of covariance functions exist to accommodate a wide variety of dependence structures arising in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Henry R. Scharf , Mevin B. Hooten , Devin S. Johnson , John W. Durban

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHP) are a class of point processes in which events at different coordinates interact through mutual excitation. The weighted adjacency matrix of the MHP encodes the strength of the relations, and shares its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Antoine Lotz

The $k$-core decomposition is a widely studied summary statistic that describes a graph's global connectivity structure. In this paper, we move beyond using $k$-core decomposition as a tool to summarize a graph and propose using $k$-core…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-29 Vishesh Karwa , Michael J. Pelsmajer , Sonja Petrović , Despina Stasi , Dane Wilburne

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

In this paper, we consider the sigmoid Gaussian Hawkes process model: the baseline intensity and triggering kernel of Hawkes process are both modeled as the sigmoid transformation of random trajectories drawn from Gaussian processes (GP).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-07-29 Isobel Seabrook , Paolo Barucca , Fabio Caccioli

We study by computer simulation the "Hawkes process" that was proposed in a recent paper by Crane and Sornette (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 105, 15649 (2008)) as a plausible model for the dynamics of YouTube video viewing numbers. We test the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2010-01-05 Lawrence Mitchell , Michael E. Cates

We show that univariate and symmetric multivariate Hawkes processes are only weakly causal: the true log-likelihoods of real and reversed event time vectors are almost equal, thus parameter estimation via maximum likelihood only weakly…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-04-18 Marcus Cordi , Damien Challet , Ioane Muni Toke

Graphs have been utilized as a powerful tool to model pairwise relationships between people or objects. Such structure is a special type of a broader concept referred to as hypergraph, in which each hyperedge may consist of an arbitrary…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-15 Manh Tuan Do , Se-eun Yoon , Bryan Hooi , Kijung Shin

Random walks can reveal communities or clusters in networks, because they are more likely to stay within a cluster than leave it. Thus, one family of community detection algorithms uses random walks to measure distance between pairs of…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2023-08-11 Eric Chalmers , Artur Luczak

In this paper, we propose a novel hypergraph based method (called HF) to fit and segment multi-structural data. The proposed HF formulates the geometric model fitting problem as a hypergraph partition problem based on a novel hypergraph…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-07-12 Guobao Xiao , Hanzi Wang , Taotao Lai , David Suter

Hypergraphs are structures that can be decomposed or described; in other words they are recursively countable. Here, we get exact and asymptotic enumeration results on hypergraphs by means of exponential generating functions. The number of…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2008-06-20 Tsiriniaina Andriamampianina

As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-12 Xinyun Chen , Xiuwen Wang
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