Related papers: NFL Play Prediction
We describe the probability theory behind a casino game, blackjack, and the procedure to compute the optimal strategy for a deck of arbitrary cards and player's expected win given that he follows the optimal strategy. The exact blackjack…
Fantasy Premier League engages the football community in selecting the Premier League players who will perform best from gameweek to gameweek. Access to accurate performance forecasts gives participants an edge over competitors by guiding…
The NFL collects detailed tracking data capturing the location of all players and the ball during each play. Although the raw form of this data is not publicly available, the NFL releases a set of aggregated statistics via their Next Gen…
Player tracking data remains out of reach for many professional football teams as their video feeds are not sufficiently high quality for computer vision technologies to be used. To help bridge this gap, we present a method that can…
This paper explores the significant history of professional football and the betting industry, tracing its evolution from clandestine beginnings to a lucrative multi-million-pound enterprise. Initiated by the legalization of gambling in…
Data analytics in sports is crucial to evaluate the performance of single players and the whole team. The literature proposes a number of tools for both offence and defence scenarios. Data coming from tracking location of players, in this…
We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…
In this article we revise the football's performance score called PlayeRank, designed and evaluated by Pappalardo et al.\ in 2019. First, we analyze the weights extracted from the Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that solves the…
We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…
Professional team sports provide an excellent domain for studying the dynamics of social competitions. These games are constructed with simple, well-defined rules and payoffs that admit a high-dimensional set of possible actions and…
When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided…
In this paper, a new continuous scoring system for soccer is proposed, based on the proportion of time that a team is winning, losing or tied. Several simulations are made applying this technique to complete seasons of different leagues. As…
The online sports gambling industry employs teams of data analysts to build forecast models that turn the odds at sports games in their favour. While several betting strategies have been proposed to beat bookmakers, from expert prediction…
Despite growing interest in quantifying and modeling the scoring dynamics within professional sports games, relative little is known about what patterns or principles, if any, cut across different sports. Using a comprehensive data set of…
The English Premier League is well-known for being not only one of the most popular professional sports leagues in the world, but also one of the toughest competitions to predict. The first purpose of this research was to verify the…
Predictive models are often introduced to decision-making tasks under the rationale that they improve performance over an existing decision-making policy. However, it is challenging to compare predictive performance against an existing…
Formal models of games help us account for and predict behavior, leading to more robust and innovative designs. While the games research community has proposed many formalisms for both the "game half" (game models, game description…
Consider a multiplayer game, and assume a system level objective function, which the system wants to optimize, is given. This paper aims at accomplishing this goal via potential game theory when players can only get part of other players'…
While football analytics has changed the way teams and analysts assess performance, there remains a communication gap between machine learning practice and how coaching staff talk about football. Coaches and practitioners require actionable…
In this paper, we present a novel approach for optimising long-term tactical and strategic decision-making in football (soccer) by encapsulating events in a league environment across a given time frame. We model the teams' objectives for a…