Related papers: Rejection Odds and Rejection Ratios: A Proposal fo…
The classical conception of falsification presents scientific theories as entities that are decisively refuted when their predictions fail. This picture has long been challenged by both philosophical analysis and scientific practice, yet…
The Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST) for precise hypotheses was presented by Pereira and Stern [Entropy 1(4) (1999) 99-110] as a Bayesian alternative instead of the traditional significance test using p-value. The FBST is based on the…
Using the likelihood ratio test statistic, we present a method which can be employed to test the hypothesis of a single Higgs boson using the matrix of measured signal strengths. This method can be applied in the presence of incomplete data…
Given the well-known and fundamental problems with hypothesis testing via classical (point-form) significance tests, there has been a general move to alternative approaches, often focused on the Bayesian t-test. We show that the Bayesian…
A statistical test can be seen as a procedure to produce a decision based on observed data, where some decisions consist of rejecting a hypothesis (yielding a significant result) and some do not, and where one controls the probability to…
When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…
Fisherian randomization inference is often dismissed as testing an uninteresting and implausible hypothesis: the sharp null of no effects whatsoever. We show that this view is overly narrow. Many randomization tests are also valid under a…
In this paper, we develop a simple approach for testing multiple statistical hypotheses based on the observations of a number of probability ratios enumerated consecutively with respect to the index of hypotheses. Explicit and tight bounds…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
Particle physics experiments such as those run in the Large Hadron Collider result in huge quantities of data, which are boiled down to a few numbers from which it is hoped that a signal will be detected. We discuss a simple probability…
This paper develops an interpretive framework for divergence P-values and S-values within a descriptive frequentist perspective. Statistical analysis is framed as operating within idealized worlds defined by a set of assumptions and a…
We point out that the traditional notion of test statistic is too narrow, and we propose a natural generalization that is arguably maximal. The study is restricted to simple statistical hypotheses.
We relate models based on costs of switching beliefs (e.g. due to inattention) to hypothesis tests. Specifically, for an inference problem with a penalty for mistakes and for switching the inferred value, a band of inaction is optimal. We…
Power series distributions form a useful subclass of one-parameter discrete exponential families suitable for modeling count data. A zero-inflated power series distribution is a mixture of a power series distribution and a degenerate…
The literature on hypothesis testing with data-dependent and post-hoc significance levels relies on a particular extension of the Type-I error to data-dependent levels. Existing arguments for this extension are heuristic, and primarily…
Bayesian linear mixed-effects models and Bayesian ANOVA are increasingly being used in the cognitive sciences to perform null hypothesis tests, where a null hypothesis that an effect is zero is compared with an alternative hypothesis that…
In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…
A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…
Scientific theories can often be formulated using equality and order constraints on the relative effects in a linear regression model. For example, it may be expected that the effect of the first predictor is larger than the effect of the…
The e-value is swiftly rising in prominence in many applications of hypothesis testing and multiple testing, yet its relationship to classical testing theory remains elusive. We unify e-values and classical testing into a single 'continuous…