Related papers: Space-time Trends in U.S. Meteorological Droughts
Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth's response is…
Precipitation extremes intensify in most regions in climate-model projections. Changes in vertical velocities contribute to the changes in intensity of precipitation extremes but remain poorly understood. Here, we find that mid-tropospheric…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
One measurement modality for rainfall is a fixed location rain gauge. However, extreme rainfall, flooding, and other climate extremes often occur at larger spatial scales and affect more than one location in a community. For example, in…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…
With the intensification of global climate change, accurate prediction of weather indicators is of great significance in disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural production, and transportation. Precipitation, as one of the key…
Santer et al (2008) (S08) compared climate models and observations in the tropical troposphere and reported that "there is no longer a serious discrepancy between modeled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates." They found no…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
Rain introduces broadband and frequency-selective attenuation in wideband terahertz (THz) links, making it necessary to identify a compact spectral descriptor that captures how the dominant loss region evolves with rainfall conditions. This…
Accurate overland runoff and infiltration predictions are critical for effective water resources management, in particular for urban flood management. However, the inherent uncertainty in rainfall patterns, soil properties, and initial…
Tropical regions may experience periodic extreme precipitation and suffer from associated periodic deluges in a warmer climate. Recent studies conducted small-domain (around 100 km x 100 km) atmospheric model simulations and found that…
This study aims to improve the accuracy of weather predictions by discovering spatial correlations between Earth observations and atmospheric states. Existing numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems predict future atmospheric states at…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…
If climate stationarity is dead, how should engineering design standards be modified to account for potential changes in extreme precipitation? Many standards rely on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves provided in…
To disentangle the complex non-stationary dependence structure of precipitation extremes over the entire contiguous U.S., we propose a flexible local approach based on factor copula models. Our sub-asymptotic spatial modeling framework…
Extratropical storms shape midlatitude weather and vary due to the slowly evolving climate and the rapid changes in synoptic conditions. While the influence of each factor has been studied extensively, their relative importance remains…