Related papers: The Longevity of Lava Dome Eruptions
Volcano eruption forecast remains a challenging and controversial problem despite the fact that data from volcano monitoring significantly increased in quantity and quality during the last decades.This study uses pattern recognition…
Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…
We evaluate susceptibility to lava flows on Mt. Etna based on specially designed die-toss experiments using probabilities for type, time and place of activation from the volcano's 400-year recorded history and current studies on its known…
Explosive eruptions are the surface manifestation of dynamics that involve transfer of magma from the underground regions of magma accumulation. Evidence of the involvement of compositionally different magmas from different reservoirs is…
Persistently active lava lakes show continuous outgassing and open convection over years to decades. Ray Lake, the lava lake at Mount Erebus, Ross Island, Antarctica, maintains long-term, near steady-state behavior in temperature, heat…
Dam breach models are commonly used to predict outflow hydrographs of potentially failing dams and are key ingredients for evaluating flood risk. In this paper a new dam breach modeling framework is introduced that shall improve the…
Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
The recent 2014 eruption of the Ontake volcano in Japan recalled that hydrothermal fields of moderately active volcanoes have an unpredictable and hazardous behavior that may endanger human beings. Steam blasts can expel devastating ejecta…
Coastal flooding drives considerable risks to many communities, but projections of future flood risks are deeply uncertain. The paucity of observations of extreme events often motivates the use of statistical approaches to model the…
Understanding and predicting uncertain things are the central themes of scientific evolution. Human beings revolve around these fears of uncertainties concerning various aspects like a global pandemic, health, finances, to name but a few.…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
Modern dune fields are valuable sources of information for the large-scale analysis of terrestrial and planetary environments and atmospheres, but their study relies on understanding the small-scale dynamics that constantly generate new…
The study of long-horizon returns has received a great deal of attention in recent years (see, for example, Boudoukh, Richardson, and Whitelaw (2008), Neuberger (2012) and Lee (2013), Fama and French (2018)). While most of the discussions…
The Tokara Islands, a volcanic archipelago south of Japan's main islands, has experienced ongoing earthquake swarm activity in 2025, raising concerns about triggering the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. The Japan Meteorological Agency…
Traditionally, Probability theory was dealing with limit theorems where 'limit" means that time tends to infinity. Questions about finite time dynamics (evolution) were always considered as, although important for practical applications,…
In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…
Motivated by the analysis of extreme rainfall data, we introduce a general Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the probability distribution of extreme values of intermittent random sequences, a common problem in geophysical and…
Volcanic tremor is key to our understanding of active magmatic systems but, due to its complexity, there is still a debate concerning its origins and how it can be used to characterize eruptive dynamics. In this study we leverage machine…
We used a deep learning workflow to enhance earthquake detection during the 2025 seismic unrest between Santorini and Amorgos islands to track the evolution of the crisis in near real-time. We analysed the continuous seismic waveforms daily…