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Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal…

Modern deep neural networks are powerful predictive tools yet often lack valid inference for causal parameters, such as treatment effects or entire survival curves. While frameworks like Double Machine Learning (DML) and Targeted Maximum…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Yi Li , David Mccoy , Nolan Gunter , Kaitlyn Lee , Alejandro Schuler , Mark van der Laan

We address the challenge of performing Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) after an initial Highly Adaptive Lasso (HAL) fit. Existing approaches that utilize the data-adaptive working model selected by HAL-such as the relaxed HAL…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-23 Yi Li , Sky Qiu , Zeyi Wang , Mark van der Laan

We study mixture of linear regression (random coefficient) models, which capture population heterogeneity by allowing the regression coefficients to follow an unknown distribution $G^*$. In contrast to common parametric methods that fix the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Hansheng Jiang , Adityanand Guntuboyina

As a competitive alternative to least squares regression, quantile regression is popular in analyzing heterogenous data. For quantile regression model specified for one single quantile level $\tau$, major difficulties of semiparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-29 Kani Chen , Yuanyuan Lin , Zhanfeng Wang , Zhiliang Ying

We propose a new method for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of nonlinear mixed effects models when the variance matrix of Gaussian random effects has a prescribed pattern of zeros (PPZ). The method consists in coupling the recently…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-11 Djalil Chafai , Didier Concordet

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

In the world of targeted learning, cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimators, CV-TMLE [Zheng:2010aa], has a distinct advantage over TMLE [Laan:2006aa] in that one less condition is required of CV-TMLE in order to achieve…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-14 Jonathan Levy

This paper investigates the quasi-maximum likelihood inference including estimation, model selection and diagnostic checking for linear double autoregressive (DAR) models, where all asymptotic properties are established under only…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-02 Hua Liu , Songhua Tan , Qianqian Zhu

Topic models provide a useful text-mining tool for learning, extracting, and discovering latent structures in large text corpora. Although a plethora of methods have been proposed for topic modeling, lacking in the literature is a formal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-12 Yinyin Chen , Shishuang He , Yun Yang , Feng Liang

Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature (for instance univariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-09 Jean-Marc Bardet , Olivier Wintenberger

The primary objective of this scholarly work is to develop two estimation procedures - maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and method of trimmed moments (MTM) - for the mean and variance of lognormal insurance payment severity data sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Chudamani Poudyal

This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Wilfredo Palma , Ricardo Olea

We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

We propose a functional accelerated failure time model to characterize effects of both functional and scalar covariates on the time to event of interest, and provide regularity conditions to guarantee model identifiability. For efficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-09 Changyu Liu , Wen Su , Kin-Yat Liu , Guosheng Yin , Xingqiu Zhao

In this article, we propose a novel logistic quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (LQMLE) for general parametric time series models. Compared to the classical Gaussian QMLE and existing robust estimations, it enjoys many distinctive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Zihan Wang , Xinghao Qiao , Dong Li , Howell Tong

We consider the problem of full information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation in a factor analysis model when a majority of the data values are missing. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is often used to find the FIML…

Computation · Statistics 2013-12-20 Kei Hirose , Sunyong Kim , Yutaka Kano , Miyuki Imada , Manabu Yoshida , Masato Matsuo

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

Standard methods for estimating average causal effects require complete observations of the exposure and confounders. In observational studies, however, missing data are ubiquitous. Motivated by a study on the effect of prescription opioids…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Lan Wen , Glen McGee

Sampling-based inference techniques are central to modern cosmological data analysis; these methods, however, scale poorly with dimensionality and typically require approximate or intractable likelihoods. In this paper we describe how…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2022-11-09 Alex Cole , Benjamin Kurt Miller , Samuel J. Witte , Maxwell X. Cai , Meiert W. Grootes , Francesco Nattino , Christoph Weniger
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