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Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…

This work initiates a general study of learning and generalization without the i.i.d. assumption, starting from first principles. While the traditional approach to statistical learning theory typically relies on standard assumptions from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-21 Steve Hanneke

Despite the striking successes of deep neural networks trained with gradient-based optimization, these methods differ fundamentally from their biological counterparts. This gap raises key questions about how nature achieves robust,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Mattia Scardecchia

Memory-based meta-learning is a technique for approximating Bayes-optimal predictors. Under fairly general conditions, minimizing sequential prediction error, measured by the log loss, leads to implicit meta-learning. The goal of this work…

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Luca Bortolussi , Guido Sanguinetti

Statistical learning theory under independent and identically distributed (iid) sampling and online learning theory for worst case individual sequences are two of the best developed branches of learning theory. Statistical learning under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-14 A. Philip Dawid , Ambuj Tewari

Deep Neural Networks are well known for efficiently fitting training data, yet experiencing poor generalization capabilities whenever some kind of bias dominates over the actual task labels, resulting in models learning "shortcuts". In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-12 Pietro Morerio , Ruggero Ragonesi , Vittorio Murino

Using methods of statistical mechanics, we analyse the effect of outliers on the supervised learning of a classification problem. The learning strategy aims at selecting informative examples and discarding outliers. We compare two…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-10-31 Rainer Dietrich , Manfred Opper

Decision-making problems often feature uncertainty stemming from heterogeneous and context-dependent human preferences. To address this, we propose a sequential learning-and-optimization pipeline to learn preference distributions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Benjamin Hudson , Laurent Charlin , Emma Frejinger

Learning-to-learn or meta-learning leverages data-driven inductive bias to increase the efficiency of learning on a novel task. This approach encounters difficulty when transfer is not advantageous, for instance, when tasks are considerably…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-20 Ghassen Jerfel , Erin Grant , Thomas L. Griffiths , Katherine Heller

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-11 César A. Uribe , James Z. Hare , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

The exponential growth of volume, variety and velocity of data is raising the need for investigations of automated or semi-automated ways to extract useful patterns from the data. It requires deep expert knowledge and extensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Abbas Raza Ali , Marcin Budka , Bogdan Gabrys

Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-11-16 Qizhao Chen , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Morgane Austern

The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities in statistics and machine learning. However, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-18 Changwoo J. Lee , Alessandro Zito , Huiyan Sang , David B. Dunson

We propose a method for non-projective dependency parsing by incrementally predicting a set of edges. Since the edges do not have a pre-specified order, we propose a set-based learning method. Our method blends graph, transition, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-25 Sean Welleck , Kyunghyun Cho

It is becoming increasingly common in regression to train neural networks that model the entire distribution even if only the mean is required for prediction. This additional modeling often comes with performance gain and the reasons behind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Ehsan Imani , Kai Luedemann , Sam Scholnick-Hughes , Esraa Elelimy , Martha White

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-01 Jessa Bekker , Pieter Robberechts , Jesse Davis

Evolving data streams induce joint nonstationarity in continual semantic segmentation, where semantic classes, input distributions, and supervision availability change simultaneously over time. This setting reflects practical structured…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Prashant Pandey , Himanshu Kumar , Devineni Sri Venkatraya Chowdary , Brejesh Lall