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Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-25 Iacopo P. Longo , Rafael Obaya , Ana M. Sanz

In latitude-dependent energy balance models, ice-free and ice-covered conditions form physical boundaries of the system. With carbon dioxide treated as a bifurcation parameter, the resulting bifurcation diagram is nonsmooth with curves of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-12-15 Anna M. Barry , Esther Widiasih , Richard McGehee

A dynamical system derived from a conceptual climate model is investigated. The model is often referred to as Budyko-Sellers type Energy Balance Model (EBM), or in short, the Budyko model. The focus of this study is on the mathematical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Esther R. Widiasih

We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-08-27 Gianmarco Del Sarto , Franco Flandoli

It is well known that evaporative cooling of Earth's surface water reduces the amount of radiation that goes into sensible heat, namely the portion of radiation that produces higher temperatures. However, a rigorous use of long-term…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-06-04 Jun Yin , Salvatore Calabrese , Edoardo Daly , Amilcare Porporato

An intriguing problem in climate science is the existence of Earth's glacial cycles. We show that it is possible to generate these periodic changes in climate by means of the Earth's carbon cycle as the main determinant factor. The carbon…

The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-08-05 Michael Ghil , Valerio Lucarini

A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2008-02-22 Francois Ouellette

A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-02-04 Eileen Hertwig , Frank Lunkeit , Klaus Fraedrich

We present a new conceptual model of the Earth's glacial-interglacial cycles, one leading to governing equations for which the vector field has a hyperplane of discontinuities. This work extends the classic Budyko- and Sellers-type…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-06 Alice Nadeau , James Walsh , Esther Widiasih

Many papers and monographs were written about the modeling the Earth climate and its variability. However there is still an obvious need for a module that presents the fundamentals of climate modeling to students at the undergraduate level.…

Popular Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Mayer Humi

The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Arturo Berrones

The understanding of the fundamental properties of the climate system has long benefitted from the use of simple numerical models able to parsimoniously represent the essential ingredients of its processes. Here we introduce a new model for…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-11-16 Gabriele Vissio , Valerio Lucarini

In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (K\"all\'en, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-02-14 Łukasz Płociniczak

Using a recently developed formalism, we present an in-depth analysis of how the thermodynamics of the climate system varies with CO2 concentration by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We find that, in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-04 V. Lucarini , K. Fraedrich , F. Lunkeit

Using a recent conceptual model of the glacial-interglacial cycles we present more evidence of Milankovitch cycles being the trigger for retreat and forming of ice sheets in the cycles. This model is based on a finite approximation of an…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-11-20 Shiv Priyam Raghuraman

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2011-01-13 Ilya Zaliapin , Michael Ghil

We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics and nonautonomous interaction at the air-sea interface. First, we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is stable under the external…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hongjun Gao , Jinqiao Duan
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