Related papers: Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: G…
A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-free long-range memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems.…
We consider the general response theory proposed by Ruelle for describing the impact of small perturbations to the non-equilibrium steady states resulting from Axiom A dynamical systems. We show that the causality of the response functions…
Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…
Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error…
Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture,…
With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…
A simple 3-parameter random walk model for monthly fluctuations $\triangle T$ of a temperature $T$ is introduced. Applied to a time range of 170 years, temperature fluctuations of the model produce for about 14\% of the runs warming that…
Improving the representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change and especially of extreme events like floods and droughts. In existing ESMs, precipitation is not resolved…
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…
Reduced precision floating point arithmetic is now routinely deployed in numerical weather forecasting over short timescales. However the applicability of these reduced precision techniques to longer timescale climate simulations -…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
The state of the art for physical hazard prediction from weather and climate requires expensive km-scale numerical simulations driven by coarser resolution global inputs. Here, a generative diffusion architecture is explored for downscaling…
This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…
We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…
How regional heterogeneity in social and cultural processes drive--and respond to--climate dynamics is little studied. Here we present a coupled social-climate model stratified across five world regions and parameterized with geophysical,…
Attribution of climate impacts to natural and anthropogenic source forcings is essential for understanding and addressing climate effects. While standard methods like optimal fingerprinting have been effective for long-term changes, they…
We introduce an approach for analyzing the responses of dynamical systems to external perturbations that combines score-based generative modeling with the Generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (GFDT). The methodology enables accurate…