Related papers: Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: G…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
We provide a link between response theory, pullback measures, and optimal fingerprinting method that paves the way for a) predicting the impact of acting forcings on time-dependent systems and b) attributing observed anomalies to acting…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
Precipitation and its response to forcings is an important aspect of planetary climate system. In this study, we examine the strength of precipitation in the experiments with different atmospheric masses and their response to surface…
Changes in the atmospheric composition alter the magnitude and partitioning between the downward propagating solar and atmospheric longwave radiative fluxes heating the Earth's surface. These changes are computed by radiative transfer codes…
Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes are to have been caused by human influence, is important for decision making on mitigation and adaptation…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
The availability of training data remains a significant obstacle for the implementation of machine learning in scientific applications. In particular, estimating how a system might respond to external forcings or perturbations requires…
We study the response of a simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic model of the atmosphere to various classes of perturbations affecting its forcing and its dissipation using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory. We investigate the…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…