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The human brain copes with sensory uncertainty in accordance with Bayes' rule. However, it is unknown how the brain makes predictions in the presence of parameter uncertainty. Here, we tested whether and how humans take parameter…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-01 Jannes Jegminat , Maya Jastrzebowska , Matt Pachai , Michael Herzog , Jean-Pascal Pfister

We analyze the problem of learning a single user's preferences in an active learning setting, sequentially and adaptively querying the user over a finite time horizon. Learning is conducted via choice-based queries, where the user selects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-27 Stephen N. Pallone , Peter I. Frazier , Shane G. Henderson

Human decision making is well known to be imperfect and the ability to analyse such processes individually is crucial when attempting to aid or improve a decision-maker's ability to perform a task, e.g. to alert them to potential biases or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Alex J. Chan , Alicia Curth , Mihaela van der Schaar

Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-15 Georgios Gerasimou

Imitation is a key component of human social behavior, and is widely used by both children and adults as a way to navigate uncertain or unfamiliar situations. But in an environment populated by multiple heterogeneous agents pursuing…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2023-05-15 Max Taylor-Davies , Stephanie Droop , Christopher G. Lucas

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework to estimate parameters of an acquisition function given observed human behavior that can be modeled as a collection of sample paths from a Bayesian optimization procedure. The methodology…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-02-04 Nathan Sandholtz , Yohsuke Miyamoto , Luke Bornn , Maurice Smith

In consumer theory, ranking available objects by means of preference relations yields the most common description of individual choices. However, preference-based models assume that individuals: (1) give their preferences only between pairs…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-02 Alessio Benavoli , Dario Azzimonti , Dario Piga

Choice decisions made by users of online applications can suffer from biases due to the users' level of engagement. For instance, low engagement users may make random choices with no concern for the quality of items offered. This biased…

Applications · Statistics 2016-08-30 Zhengli Wang , Tauhid Zaman

Learning the preferences of a human improves the quality of the interaction with the human. The number of queries available to learn preferences maybe limited especially when interacting with a human, and so active learning is a must. One…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Sriram Gopalakrishnan , Utkarsh Soni

An implicit expectation of asking users to rate agents, such as an AI decision-aid, is that they will use only relevant information -- ask them about an agent's benevolence, and they should consider whether or not it was kind. Behavioral…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-07-28 Nikolos Gurney , David Pynadath , Ning Wang

There is a consensus that human and non-human subjects experience temporal distortions in many stages of their perceptual and decision-making systems. Similarly, intertemporal choice research has shown that decision-makers undervalue future…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-31 Pedro A. Ortega , Naftali Tishby

We consider black-box global optimization of time-consuming-to-evaluate functions on behalf of a decision-maker (DM) whose preferences must be learned. Each feasible design is associated with a time-consuming-to-evaluate vector of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-05 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

People routinely infer the goals of others by observing their actions over time. Remarkably, we can do so even when those actions lead to failure, enabling us to assist others when we detect that they might not achieve their goals. How…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Tan Zhi-Xuan , Jordyn L. Mann , Tom Silver , Joshua B. Tenenbaum , Vikash K. Mansinghka

It is well known that reinforcement learning can be cast as inference in an appropriate probabilistic model. However, this commonly involves introducing a distribution over agent trajectories with probabilities proportional to exponentiated…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-07 David Tolpin , Tomer Dobkin

One of the most crucial issues in data mining is to model human behaviour in order to provide personalisation, adaptation and recommendation. This usually involves implicit or explicit knowledge, either by observing user interactions, or by…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2017-08-21 Kevin Jasberg , Sergej Sizov

The problem of estimating event truths from conflicting agent opinions in a social network is investigated. An autoencoder learns the complex relationships between event truths, agent reliabilities and agent observations. A Bayesian network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Jielong Yang , Wee Peng Tay

With ever-increasing available data, predicting individuals' preferences and helping them locate the most relevant information has become a pressing need. Understanding and predicting preferences is also important from a fundamental point…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-10-05 Roger Guimera , Alejandro Llorente , Esteban Moro , Marta Sales-Pardo

Predicting a customer's propensity-to-pay at an early point in the revenue cycle can provide organisations many opportunities to improve the customer experience, reduce hardship and reduce the risk of impaired cash flow and occurrence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Md Abul Bashar , Astin-Walmsley Kieren , Heath Kerina , Richi Nayak

Decisions in organizations are about evaluating alternatives and choosing the one that would best serve organizational goals. To the extent that the evaluation of alternatives could be formulated as a predictive task with appropriate…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-06-30 Charles Wan , Rodrigo Belo , Leid Zejnilović

Can large language models (LLMs) learn a decision maker's preferences from observed choices and generate preference-consistent recommendations in new situations? We propose a portable Simulate-Recommend-Evaluate framework that tests…

General Economics · Economics 2026-04-08 Jeongbin Kim , Matthew Kovach , Kyu-Min Lee , Euncheol Shin , Hector Tzavellas