Related papers: Seismic quiescence and b-value decrease before lar…
The Drossel-Schwabl model of forest fires can be interpreted in a coarse grained sense as a model for the stress distribution in a single planar fault. Fires in the model are then translated to earthquakes. I show that when a second class…
We re-examine a two-dimensional forest-fire model via Monte-Carlo simulations and show the existence of two length scales with different critical exponents associated with clusters and with the usual two-point correlation function of trees.…
The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…
Fluctuations in the occurrence of large, disastrous earthquakes are important for the study of deviations from the regular behavior of earthquakes. In this study, to assist in our understanding of the irregular behavior of earthquake…
We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
We address several questions on the behavior of a numerical model recently introduced to study seismic phenomena, that includes relaxation in the plates as a key ingredient. We make an analysis of the scaling of the largest events with…
We discuss the scaling behavior of the self-organized critical forest-fire model on large length scales. As indicated in earlier publications, the forest-fire model does not show conventional critical scaling, but has two qualitatively…
Earthquake size-frequency distributions commonly follow a power law, with the b value often used to quantify the relative proportion of small and large events. Laboratory experiments have found that the b value of microfractures decreases…
Identifying systematic patterns in seismicity that precede large earthquakes remains a central challenge in statistical seismology. In this work, we present a methodological framework for detecting spatiotemporal anomalies in seismicity…
We present a systematic study of corrections to scaling in the self-organized critical forest-fire model. The analysis of the steady-state condition for the density of trees allows us to pinpoint the presence of these corrections, which…
The forest fire model is a reaction-diffusion model where energy, in the form of trees, is injected uniformly, and burned (dissipated) locally. We show that the spatial distribution of fires forms a novel geometric structure where the…
Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…
Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed enough to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes…
One of the main interests in seismology is the formulation of models able to describe the clustering in time occurrence of earthquakes. Analysis of the Southern California Catalog shows magnitude clustering in correspondence to temporal…
A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence…
We investigate a forest-fire model with the density of empty sites as control parameter. The model exhibits three phases, separated by one first-order phase transition and one 'mixed' phase transition which shows critical behavior on only…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
Physics-based and statistic-based models for describing seismic occurrence are two sides of the same coin. In this article we compare the temporal organization of events obtained in a spring-block model for the seismic fault with the one…