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We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-02-17 Philipp Hennig , Michael A Osborne , Mark Girolami

We describe a method to perform functional operations on probability distributions of random variables. The method uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space representations of probability distributions, and it is applicable to all operations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-14 Bernhard Schölkopf , Krikamol Muandet , Kenji Fukumizu , Jonas Peters

When one deals with data drawn from continuous variables, a histogram is often inadequate to display their probability density. It deals inefficiently with statistical noise, and binsizes are free parameters. In contrast to that, the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 Bernd A. Berg , Robert C. Harris

We present parton distribution functions which include a quantitative estimate of its uncertainties. The parton distribution functions are optimized with respect to deep inelastic proton data, expressing the uncertainties as a density…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 Walter T. Giele , Stephane A. Keller , David A. Kosower

The histogram is an analysis tool in widespread use within many sciences, with high energy physics as a prime example. However, there exists an inherent bias in the choice of binning for the histogram, with different choices potentially…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-05-21 Abram Krislock , Nathan Krislock

We investigate a data-driven approach to constructing uncertainty sets for robust optimization problems, where the uncertain problem parameters are modeled as random variables whose joint probability distribution is not known. Relying only…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Polina Alexeenko , Eilyan Bitar

Histograms are convenient non-parametric density estimators, which continue to be used ubiquitously. Summary quantities estimated from histogram-based probability density models depend on the choice of the number of bins. We introduce a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-09-17 Kevin H. Knuth

In many applications (in particular information systems, such as pattern recognition, machine learning, cheminformatics, bioinformatics to name but a few) the assessment of uncertainty is essential - i.e., the estimation of the underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-26 Hamse Y. Mussa , Avid M. Afzal

In this article we study the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in an experiment with a technical system. We propose new density estimates which combine observed data of the technical system and simulated data from an (imperfect)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-21 Sebastian Kersting , Michael Kohler

The histogram method is a powerful non-parametric approach for estimating the probability density function of a continuous variable. But the construction of a histogram, compared to the parametric approaches, demands a large number of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-12-29 Hideaki Kim , Hiroshi Sawada

Measures of uncertainty and divergence are introduced for interval-valued probability distributions and are shown to have desirable mathematical properties. A maximum uncertainty inference procedure for marginal interval distributions is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Michael Pittarelli

Exploiting the geometric nature of statistical divergences, we devise a way to define associated induced uncertainty measures for discrete and finite probability distributions. We also report new uncertainty measures and discuss their…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-06-29 Gautam Sharma , Sk Sazim

In this article we present very intuitive, easy to follow, yet mathematically rigorous, approach to the so called data fitting process. Rather than minimizing the distance between measured and simulated data points, we prefer to find such…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-08-07 Marek W. Gutowski

Univariate and multivariate normal probability distributions are widely used when modeling decisions under uncertainty. Computing the performance of such models requires integrating these distributions over specific domains, which can vary…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-31 Abhranil Das , Wilson S Geisler

Much of uncertainty quantification to date has focused on determining the effect of variables modeled probabilistically, and with a known distribution, on some physical or engineering system. We develop methods to obtain information on the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Kamaljit Chowdhary , Paul Dupuis

We describe a method for fitting distributions to data which only requires knowledge of the parametric form of either the signal or the background but not both. The unknown distribution is fit using a non-parametric kernel density…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-03 Wolfgang A. Rolke , Angel M. López

Many AI researchers argue that probability theory is only capable of dealing with uncertainty in situations where a full specification of a joint probability distribution is available, and conclude that it is not suitable for application in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Linda C. van der Gaag

In this paper we consider a variety of procedures for numerical statistical inference in the family of univariate and multivariate stable distributions. In connection with univariate distributions (i) we provide approximations by finite…

Computation · Statistics 2012-09-04 Efthymios G. Tsionas

In this paper we address the uncertainty issues involved in the low-level vision task of image segmentation. Researchers in computer vision have worked extensively on this problem, in which the goal is to partition (or segment) an image…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-08 Steven M. LaValle , Seth A. Hutchinson

We consider the problem of fitting a probability density function when it is constrained to have a given number of modal intervals. We propose a dynamic programming approach to solving this problem numerically. When this number is not…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-07-25 Ery Arias-Castro , He Jiang
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