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We present a general framework for uncertainty quantification that is a mosaic of interconnected models. We define global first and second order structural and correlative sensitivity analyses for random counting measures acting on risk…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-05 Caleb Deen Bastian , Herschel Rabitz

Causal discovery from observational data is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with far-reaching implications for decision-making, predictions, and interventions. Despite significant advances, existing methods can be broadly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-06 Jincheng Zhou , Mengbo Wang , Anqi He , Yumeng Zhou , Hessam Olya , Murat Kocaoglu , Bruno Ribeiro

A classical problem of statistical inference is the valid specification of a model that can account for the statistical dependencies between observations when the true structure is dense, intractable, or unknown. To address this problem, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-19 Shane Sparkes , Lu Zhang

Fairness-aware learning is a novel framework for classification tasks. Like regular empirical risk minimization (ERM), it aims to learn a classifier with a low error rate, and at the same time, for the predictions of the classifier to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-26 Kazuto Fukuchi , Jun Sakuma

The simplest and most widely applied method for guaranteeing differential privacy is to add instance-independent noise to a statistic of interest that is scaled to its global sensitivity. However, global sensitivity is a worst-case notion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Mark Bun , Thomas Steinke

The main objective of this paper is to estimate optimally Sobol' indices at any order when a unique input/output i.i.d.\ sample is available. Our approach stands on three main ingredients: semi-parametric estimation theory, high-order…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-10 Sébastien Da Veiga , Fabrice Gamboa , Thierry Klein , Agnès Lagnoux , Clémentine Prieur

This study compares the performances of two sampling-based strategies for the simultaneous estimation of the first-and total-orders variance-based sensitivity indices (a.k.a Sobol' indices). The first strategy was introduced by [8] and is…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-16 Ivano Azzini , Thierry Mara , Rossana Rosati

For nonlinear supervised learning models, assessing the importance of predictor variables or their interactions is not straightforward because it can vary in the domain of the variables. Importance can be assessed locally with sensitivity…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-14 Topi Paananen , Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is a recommended step in the use of computer simulation models. GSA quantifies the relative importance of model inputs on outputs (Factor Ranking), identifies inputs that could be fixed, thus simplifying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Ken Newman , Shaini Naha , Leah Jackson-Blake , Cairistiona Topp , Miriam Glendell , Adam Butler

Quantifying how distinguishable two stochastic processes are lies at the heart of many fields, such as machine learning and quantitative finance. While several measures have been proposed for this task, none have universal applicability and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-01 Chengran Yang , Felix C. Binder , Mile Gu , Thomas J. Elliott

Gradients can be employed for sensitivity analysis. Here, we leverage the advantages of the Loss Landscape to comprehend which independent variables impact the dependent variable. We seek to grasp the loss landscape by utilizing first,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-06 Salman Faroz

For many geophysical measurements, such as direct current or electromagnetic induction methods, information fades away with depth. This has to be taken into account when interpreting models estimated from such measurements. For that reason,…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-12-18 Christin Bobe , Johannes Keller , Ellen Van De Vijver

Latent variable models are popularly used to measure latent factors (e.g., abilities and personalities) from large-scale assessment data. Beyond understanding these latent factors, the covariate effect on responses controlling for latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Jing Ouyang , Chengyu Cui , Kean Ming Tan , Gongjun Xu

Understanding the dynamics and evolution of climate change and associated uncertainties is key for designing robust policy actions. Computer models are key tools in this scientific effort, which have now reached a high level of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Matteo Fontana , Massimo Tavoni , Simone Vantini

In uncertainty quantification, a stochastic modelling is often applied, where parameters are substituted by random variables. We investigate linear dynamical systems of ordinary differential equations with a quantity of interest as output.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-09-23 Roland Pulch , Akil Narayan

We describe a novel attribution method which is grounded in Sensitivity Analysis and uses Sobol indices. Beyond modeling the individual contributions of image regions, Sobol indices provide an efficient way to capture higher-order…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-02-17 Thomas Fel , Remi Cadene , Mathieu Chalvidal , Matthieu Cord , David Vigouroux , Thomas Serre

Parametric statistical methods play a central role in analyzing risk through its underlying frequency and severity components. Given the wide availability of numerical algorithms and high-speed computers, researchers and practitioners often…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-17 Michael R. Powers , Jiaxin Xu

We introduce some new indexes to measure the departure of any multivariate continuous distribution on non-negative orthant from a given reference one such the uncorrelated exponential model, similar to the relative Fisher dispersion indexes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Célestin C. Kokonendji , Aboubacar Y. Touré , Amadou Sawadogo

Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-15 Peng Ding , Tyler VanderWeele

We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Matteo Bonvini , Edward Kennedy , Valerie Ventura , Larry Wasserman
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