Related papers: Assessing forensic evidence by computing belief fu…
Many forensic genetics problems can be handled using structured systems of discrete variables, for which Bayesian networks offer an appealing practical modeling framework, and allow inferences to be computed by probability propagation…
The persistent issue of wrongful convictions in the United States emphasizes the need for scrutiny and improvement of the criminal justice system. While statistical methods for the evaluation of forensic evidence, including glass,…
Shafer's belief functions were introduced in the seventies of the previous century as a mathematical tool in order to model epistemic probability. One of the reasons that they were not picked up by mainstream probability was the lack of a…
The presence of interference renders classic Fisher randomization tests infeasible due to nuisance unknowns. To address this issue, we propose imputing the nuisance unknowns and computing Fisher randomization p-values multiple times, then…
We formulate Dempster Shafer Belief functions in terms of Propositional Logic using the implicit notion of provability underlying Dempster Shafer Theory. Given a set of propositional clauses, assigning weights to certain propositional…
This article is an extension of the results of two earlier articles. In [J. Schubert, On nonspecific evidence, Int. J. Intell. Syst. 8 (1993) 711-725] we established within Dempster-Shafer theory a criterion function called the metaconflict…
Probability models are only useful at explaining the uncertainty of what we do not know, and should never be used to say what we already know. Probability and statistical models are useless at discerning cause. Classical statistical…
Bayes's rule deals with hard evidence, that is, we can calculate the probability of event $A$ occuring given that event $B$ has occurred. Soft evidence, on the other hand, involves a degree of uncertainty about whether event $B$ has…
In this paper, we describe a scheme for propagating belief functions in certain kinds of trees using only local computations. This scheme generalizes the computational scheme proposed by Shafer and Logan1 for diagnostic trees of the type…
One of the most important aspects in any treatment of uncertain information is the rule of combination for updating the degrees of uncertainty. The theory of belief functions uses the Dempster rule to combine two belief functions defined by…
We describe a viewpoint on the Dempster/Shafer 'Theory of Evidence', and provide an interpretation which regards the combination formulas as statistics of the opinions of "experts". This is done by introducing spaces with binary operations…
A goal in the forensic interpretation of scientific evidence is to make an inference about the source of a trace of unknown origin. The evidence is composed of the following three elements: (a) the trace of unknown origin, (b) a sample from…
Dempster-Shafer theory (D-S theory) is widely used in decision making under the uncertain environment. Ranking basic belief assignments (BBAs) now is an open issue. Existing evidence distance measures cannot rank the BBAs in the situations…
Decision making is still an open issue in the application of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. A lot of works have been presented for it. In the transferable belief model (TBM), pignistic probabilities based on the basic probability as-…
The sure thing principle and the law of total probability are basic laws in classic probability theory. A disjunction fallacy leads to the violation of these two classical laws. In this paper, an Evidential Markov (EM) decision making model…
Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…
This paper presents a new classifier combination technique based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is a powerful method for combining measures of evidence from different classifiers. However,…
The classical conception of falsification presents scientific theories as entities that are decisively refuted when their predictions fail. This picture has long been challenged by both philosophical analysis and scientific practice, yet…
The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…
Mathematical Theory of Evidence called also Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) is known as a foundation for reasoning when knowledge is expressed at various levels of detail. Though much research effort has been committed to this theory since its…