Related papers: Dynamical Inference for Transitions in Stochastic …
Complex dynamical systems which are governed by anomalous diffusion often can be described by Langevin equations driven by L\'evy stable noise. In this article we generalize nonlinear stochastic differential equations driven by Gaussian…
Data assimilation (DA) aims at optimally merging observational data and model outputs to create a coherent statistical and dynamical picture of the system under investigation. Indeed, DA aims at minimizing the effect of observational and…
The reconstruction and inference of stochastic dynamical systems from data is a fundamental task in inverse problems and statistical learning. While surrogate modeling advances computational methods to approximate these dynamics, standard…
Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a…
We study the impact of applying stochastic forcing to the Ghil-Sellers energy balance climate model in the form of a fluctuating solar irradiance. Through numerical simulations, we explore the noise-induced transitions between the competing…
We consider a coupled bistable N-particle system driven by a Brownian noise, with a strong coupling corresponding to the synchronised regime. Our aim is to obtain sharp estimates on the metastable transition times between the two stable…
Living systems have time-evolving interactions that, until recently, could not be identified accurately from recorded time series in the presence of noise. Stankovski et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. 109 024101, 2012) introduced a method based on…
Data assimilation (DA) addresses the problem of sequentially estimating the state of a dynamical system from noisy and incomplete observations. In this work, we employ a diffusion model as a world model to simulate and predict the system's…
This work is concerned with the dynamics of a class of slow-fast stochastic dynamical systems with non-Gaussian stable L\'evy noise with a scale parameter. Slow manifolds with exponentially tracking property are constructed, eliminating the…
Additive noise is known to produce counter-intuitive behaviors in nonlinear dynamical systems. Previously, it was shown that systems with a deterministic limit cycle can display bistable switching between metastable states in the presence…
Ensemble data assimilation is a problem in determining the most likely phase space trajectory of a model of an observed dynamical sys- tem as it receives inputs from measurements passing information to the model. Using methods developed in…
There are multiple ways in which a stochastic system can be out of statistical equilibrium. It might be subject to time-varying forcing; or be in a transient phase on its way towards equilibrium; it might even be in equilibrium without us…
We focus on variational inference in dynamical systems where the discrete time transition function (or evolution rule) is modelled by a Gaussian process. The dominant approach so far has been to use a factorised posterior distribution,…
Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the…
The dynamics of an ensemble of bistable elements under the influence of noise and with global time-delayed coupling is studied numerically by using a Langevin description and analytically by using 1) a Gaussian approximation and 2) a…
Stochastic systems characterised by a random driving in a form of the general stable noise are considered. The particle experiences long rests due to the traps the density of which is position-dependent and obeys a power-law form attributed…
Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state…
We present a simple analytical tool which gives an approximate insight into the stationary behavior of nonlinear systems undergoing the influence of a weak and rapid noise from one dominating source, e.g. the kinetic equations describing a…
Dynamical systems driven by Gaussian noises have been considered extensively in modeling, simulation and theory. However, complex systems in engineering and science are often subject to non-Gaussian fluctuations or uncertainties. A coupled…
Networks of globally coupled, noise activated, bistable elements with connection time delays are considered. The dynamics of these systems is studied numerically using a Langevin description and analytically using (1) a Gaussian…