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We introduce a powerful and flexible MCMC algorithm for stochastic simulation. The method builds on a pseudo-marginal method originally introduced in [Genetics 164 (2003) 1139--1160], showing how algorithms which are approximations to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-01 Christophe Andrieu , Gareth O. Roberts

Monte Carlo methods play important part in modern statistical physics. The application of these methods suffer from two main difficulties.The first is caused by the relatively small number of particles that can participate in any numerical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Brandt , V. Ilyin

We generalize the multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method of Giles to the simulation of systems of particles that interact via a mean field. When the number of particles is large, these systems are described by a McKean-Vlasov process - a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-08-11 L. F. Ricketson

A number of optimal decision problems with uncertainty can be formulated into a stochastic optimal control framework. The Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm is a popular numerical method to approach solutions of such stochastic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-23 Zhiyi Shen , Chengguo Weng

Recent applications (e.g. active gels and self-assembly of elastic sheets) motivate the need to efficiently simulate the dynamics of thin elastic sheets. We present semi-implicit time stepping algorithms to improve the time step constraints…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-10-23 Silas Alben , Alex A. Gorodetsky , Donghak Kim , Robert D. Deegan

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is one of the most powerful sequence models. Despite the strong performance, however, it lacks the nice interpretability as in state space models. In this paper, we present a way to combine the best of both…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-04 Xun Zheng , Manzil Zaheer , Amr Ahmed , Yuan Wang , Eric P Xing , Alexander J Smola

We address the approximation of functionals depending on a system of particles, described by stochastic differential equations (SDEs), in the mean-field limit when the number of particles approaches infinity. This problem is equivalent to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-02 Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Raul Tempone

We develop new multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to estimate the expectation of the smallest eigenvalue of a stochastic convection-diffusion operator with random coefficients. The MLMC method is based on a sequence of finite element…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-02-13 Tiangang Cui , Hans De Sterck , Alexander D. Gilbert , Stanislav Polishchuk , Robert Scheichl

We introduce three related but distinct improvements to multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for the solution of systems of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Firstly, we show that when the payoff function is twice continuously…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-09-10 L. F. Ricketson

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

There exist several methods for simulating biological and physical systems as represented by chemical reaction networks. Systems with low numbers of particles are frequently modelled as discrete-state Markov jump processes and are typically…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-10-24 Joshua C. Kynaston , Christian A Yates , Anna Hekkink , Chris Guiver

State space models (SSM) have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large sequential datasets. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a very popular particle-based method to sample latent states from intractable posteriors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Duo Xu

We consider the important problem of estimating parameter sensitivities for stochastic models of reaction networks that describe the dynamics as a continuous-time Markov process over a discrete lattice. These sensitivity values are useful…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-12 Ankit Gupta , Muruhan Rathinam , Mustafa Khammash

Accurately and efficiently estimating system performance under uncertainty is paramount in power system planning and operation. Monte Carlo simulation is often used for this purpose, but convergence may be slow, especially when detailed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-10-23 Simon Tindemans , Goran Strbac

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2016-10-12 Andrew Duncan , Radek Erban , Konstantinos Zygalakis

Kinetic equations model the position-velocity distribution of particles subject to transport and collision effects. Under a diffusive scaling, these combined effects converge to a diffusion equation for the position density in the limit of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-07-26 Emil Løvbak , Giovanni Samaey

We consider the development of high order space and time numerical methods based on Implicit-Explicit (IMEX) multistep time integrators for hyperbolic systems with relaxation. More specifically, we consider hyperbolic balance laws in which…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Giacomo Albi , Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In the first part of this paper we study approximations of trajectories of Piecewise Deter-ministic Processes (PDP) when the flow is not explicit by the thinning method. We also establish a strong error estimate for PDPs as well as a weak…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-10 Vincent Lemaire , Michèle Thieullen , Nicolas Thomas