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In this paper, we consider risk-sensitive Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with Borel state and action spaces and unbounded cost under both finite and infinite planning horizons. Our optimality criterion is based on the recursive…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-16 Nicole Bäuerle , Alexander Glauner

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a notion of causality in Markov decision processes based on the probability-raising principle and to analyze its algorithmic properties. The latter includes algorithms for checking cause-effect…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-01-24 Christel Baier , Florian Funke , Jakob Piribauer , Robin Ziemek

We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-01-21 David Wozabal , Ronald Hochreiter

This paper considers the problem of finding near-optimal Markovian randomized (MR) policies for finite-state-action, infinite-horizon, constrained risk-sensitive Markov decision processes (CRSMDPs). Constraints are in the form of standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-14 Uday Kumar M , Sanjay P Bhat , Veeraruna Kavitha , Nandyala Hemachandra

We study the policy testing problem in discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs) in the fixed-confidence setting under a generative model with static sampling. The goal is to decide whether the value of a given policy exceeds a specified…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Kaito Ariu , Po-An Wang , Alexandre Proutiere , Kenshi Abe

Option-critic learning is a general-purpose reinforcement learning (RL) framework that aims to address the issue of long term credit assignment by leveraging temporal abstractions. However, when dealing with extended timescales, discounting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-21 Akshay Dharmavaram , Matthew Riemer , Shalabh Bhatnagar

Predictive models are often deployed through existing decision policies that stakeholders are reluctant to change unless a risk constraint requires intervention. We study risk-controlled post-processing: given a deterministic baseline…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Sunay Joshi , Tao Wang , Hamed Hassani , Edgar Dobriban

In this paper we establish spatial central limit theorems for a large class of supercritical branching Markov processes with general spatial-dependent branching mechanisms. These are generalizations of the spatial central limit theorems…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-06 Y. -X. Ren , R. Song , R. Zhang

This paper deals with unconstrained discounted continuous-time Markov decision processes in Borel state and action spaces. Under some conditions imposed on the primitives, allowing unbounded transition rates and unbounded (from both above…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-03-02 Alexey Piunovskiy , Yi Zhang

A constrained Markov decision process (CMDP) approach is developed for response-adaptive procedures in clinical trials with binary outcomes. The resulting CMDP class of Bayesian response -- adaptive procedures can be used to target a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-31 Stef Baas , Aleida Braaksma , Richard J. Boucherie

The goal of a traditional Markov decision process (MDP) is to maximize expected cumulative reward over a defined horizon (possibly infinite). In many applications, however, a decision maker may be interested in optimizing a specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Xiaocheng Li , Huaiyang Zhong , Margaret L. Brandeau

We consider the batch (off-line) policy learning problem in the infinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Motivated by mobile health applications, we focus on learning a policy that maximizes the long-term average reward. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Peng Liao , Zhengling Qi , Runzhe Wan , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy

With the simultaneous rise of energy costs and demand for cloud computing, efficient control of data centers becomes crucial. In the data center control problem, one needs to plan at every time step how many servers to switch on or off in…

Performance · Computer Science 2018-01-25 Paul Weng , Zeqi Qiu , John Costanzo , Xiaoqi Yin , Bruno Sinopoli

This paper studies a large number of homogeneous Markov decision processes where the transition probabilities and costs are coupled in the empirical distribution of states (also called mean-field). The state of each process is not known to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-03 Jalal Arabneydi , Amir G. Aghdam

Optimal Markov Decision Process policies for problems with finite state and action space are identified through a partial ordering by comparing the value function across states. This is referred to as state-based optimality. This paper…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Dylan Solms

We consider finite-horizon Markov Decision Processes where parameters, such as transition probabilities, are unknown and estimated from data. The popular distributionally robust approach to addressing the parameter uncertainty can sometimes…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-10-07 Yifan Lin , Yuxuan Ren , Enlu Zhou

Many control problems in environments that can be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs) concern infinite-time horizon specifications. The classical aim in this context is to compute a control policy that maximizes the probability of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-05-03 Ruediger Ehlers , Salar Moarref , Ufuk Topcu

We introduce a general framework for measuring risk in the context of Markov control processes with risk maps on general Borel spaces that generalize known concepts of risk measures in mathematical finance, operations research and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-27 Yun Shen , Wilhelm Stannat , Klaus Obermayer

We consider the challenge of finding a deterministic policy for a Markov decision process that uniformly (in all states) maximizes one reward subject to a probabilistic constraint over a different reward. Existing solutions do not fully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Jaeyoung Lee , Sean Sedwards , Krzysztof Czarnecki

The online Markov decision process (MDP) is a generalization of the classical Markov decision process that incorporates changing reward functions. In this paper, we propose practical online MDP algorithms with policy iteration and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-10-16 Yao Ma , Hao Zhang , Masashi Sugiyama