Related papers: A Critique of Dyadic Design
An analyst observes an agent take a sequence of actions. The analyst does not have access to the agent's information and ponders whether the observed actions could be justified through a rational Bayesian model with a known utility…
The modeling of complex systems such as ecological or socio-economic systems can be very challenging. Although various modeling approaches exist, they are generally not compatible and mutually consistent, and empirical data often do not…
Game theory is the standard tool used to model strategic interactions in evolutionary biology and social science. Traditional game theory studies the equilibria of simple games. But is traditional game theory applicable if the game is…
Assessment of replicability is critical to ensure the quality and rigor of scientific research. In this paper, we discuss inference and modeling principles for replicability assessment. Targeting distinct application scenarios, we propose…
Traditional statistical theory assumes that the analysis to be performed on a given data set is selected independently of the data themselves. This assumption breaks downs when data are re-used across analyses and the analysis to be…
We present a multivariate one-sided sensitivity analysis for matched observational studies, appropriate when the researcher has specified that a given causal mechanism should manifest itself in effects on multiple outcome variables in a…
Familiar statistical tests and estimates are obtained by the direct observation of cases of interest: a clinical trial of a new drug, for instance, will compare the drug's effects on a relevant set of patients and controls. Sometimes,…
Accessing data collected by federal statistical agencies is essential for public policy research and improving evidence-based decision making, such as evaluating the effectiveness of social programs, understanding demographic shifts, or…
Healthcare companies must submit pharmaceutical drugs or medical devices to regulatory bodies before marketing new technology. Regulatory bodies frequently require transparent and interpretable computational modelling to justify a new…
A broad set of empirical phenomenon in the study of social, economic and machine behaviour can be modelled as complex systems with averaging dynamics. However many of these models naturally result in consensus or consensus-like outcomes. In…
This paper presents the research on the interdisciplinary research infrastructure for understanding human reasoning in game-theoretic terms. Strategic reasoning is considered to impact human decision making in social, economical and…
Over time, clinical trials have increasingly incorporated complex design and analysis elements such as interim analyses, adaptations, multiple endpoints, and sophisticated multiplicity schemes for multiple endpoints and/or treatment arms…
The time needed to exchange information in the physical world induces a delay term when the respective system is modeled by differential equations. Time delays are hence ubiquitous, being furthermore likely to induce instabilities and with…
Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive…
The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…
Deception is virtually ubiquitous in warfare, and should be a central consideration for military operations research. However, studies of agent behaviour in simulated operations have typically neglected to include explicit models of…
Frequentist statistical methods, such as hypothesis testing, are standard practice in papers that provide benchmark comparisons. Unfortunately, these methods have often been misused, e.g., without testing for their statistical test…
Estimating the effects of interventions in networks is complicated when the units are interacting, such that the outcomes for one unit may depend on the treatment assignment and behavior of many or all other units (i.e., there is…
Disaggregated evaluations of AI systems, in which system performance is assessed and reported separately for different groups of people, are conceptually simple. However, their design involves a variety of choices. Some of these choices…
This paper defends an augmented cognitively oriented "generic-design hypothesis": There are both significant similarities between the design activities implemented in different situations and crucial differences between these and other…