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How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
Exploiting the power of the expectation operator and indicator (or Bernoulli) random variables, we present the exact governing equations for both the SIR and SIS epidemic models on \emph{networks}. Although SIR and SIS are basic epidemic…
Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The existing studies on the effective epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model generally…
Random networks with specified degree distributions have been proposed as realistic models of population structure, yet the problem of dynamically modeling SIR-type epidemics in random networks remains complex. I resolve this dilemma by…
In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…
The ability to actually implement epidemic models is a crucial stake for public institutions, as they may be overtaken by the increasing complexity of current models and sometimes tend to revert to less elaborate models such as the SIR. In…
We study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on directed complex networks within the quenched mean-field approximation. Combining results from random matrix theory with an analytic approach to the distribution of fixed-point…
We study several bayesian inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models on networks from a statistical physics viewpoint. We derive equations which allow to accurately compute the posterior distribution of the time…
Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations, and may bounce…
In this paper we analyze continuous-time SIS epidemics subject to arrivals and departures of agents, by using an approximated process based on replacements. In defining the SIS dynamics in an open network, we consider a stochastic setting…
Compartmental epidemic models, grounded in mass-action kinetics, often assume homogeneous mixing. Although this neglects network structure, recent results show that for Poisson random graphs, the classical SIR model, especially the…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model…
Models with several levels of mixing (households, workplaces), as well as various corresponding formulations for R0, have been proposed in the literature. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of the distribution of the…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
We investigate the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on configuration model networks. In an effort for the unification of current approaches, we consider a network whose edges are constantly being rearranged, with a tunable rewiring…
In this paper, we investigate the epidemic spreading for SIR model in weighted scale-free networks with nonlinear infectivity, where the transmission rate in our analytical model is weighted. Concretely, we introduce the infectivity…