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Automatic forecasting is the task of receiving a time series and returning a forecast for the next time steps without any human intervention. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for modeling time series, but so far there are no…
In decision-making systems, it is important to have classifiers that have calibrated uncertainties, with an optimisation objective that can be used for automated model selection and training. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide uncertainty…
We develop a flexible Gaussian Process (GP) framework for learning the covariance structure of Age- and Year-specific mortality surfaces. Utilizing the additive and multiplicative structure of GP kernels, we design a genetic programming…
We introduce a Gaussian process model of functions which are additive. An additive function is one which decomposes into a sum of low-dimensional functions, each depending on only a subset of the input variables. Additive GPs generalize…
Gaussian processes (GP) for machine learning have been studied systematically over the past two decades and they are by now widely used in a number of diverse applications. However, GP kernel design and the associated hyper-parameter…
Gaussian Process (GP) models are a class of flexible non-parametric models that have rich representational power. By using a Gaussian process with additive structure, complex responses can be modelled whilst retaining interpretability.…
Gaussian processes offer an attractive framework for predictive modeling from longitudinal data, i.e., irregularly sampled, sparse observations from a set of individuals over time. However, such methods have two key shortcomings: (i) They…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are an attractive class of machine learning models because of their simplicity and flexibility as building blocks of more complex Bayesian models. Meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerged recently as a…
Graph models are relevant in many fields, such as distributed computing, intelligent tutoring systems or social network analysis. In many cases, such models need to take changes in the graph structure into account, i.e. a varying number of…
We introduce a new class of nonstationary kernels, which we derive as covariance functions of a novel family of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs). We construct string GPs to allow for multiple types…
Bayesian nonparametric models, such as Gaussian processes, provide a compelling framework for automatic statistical modelling: these models have a high degree of flexibility, and automatically calibrated complexity. However, automating…
We consider a Gaussian process formulation of the multiple kernel learning problem. The goal is to select the convex combination of kernel matrices that best explains the data and by doing so improve the generalisation on unseen data.…
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a popular surrogate modeling tool for computer simulations in engineering and scientific domains. However, it often struggles with high computational costs and low prediction accuracy when the simulation…
We undertake Bayesian learning of the high-dimensional functional relationship between a system parameter vector and an observable, that is in general tensor-valued. The ultimate aim is Bayesian inverse prediction of the system parameters,…
The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to large data sets is limited due to heavy memory and computational requirements. A variety of methods has been proposed to enable scalability, one of which is to exploit structure in the kernel…
Gaussian processes regression models are an appealing machine learning method as they learn expressive non-linear models from exemplar data with minimal parameter tuning and estimate both the mean and covariance of unseen points. However,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) produce good probabilistic models of functions, but most GP kernels require $O((n+m)n^2)$ time, where $n$ is the number of data points and $m$ the number of predictive locations. We present a new kernel that allows…
We consider the problem of detecting and quantifying the periodic component of a function given noise-corrupted observations of a limited number of input/output tuples. Our approach is based on Gaussian process regression which provides a…
In this paper we investigate a link between state- space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state- space models are transformed into continuous time form and…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used in nonparametric regression, classification and spatio-temporal modeling, motivated in part by a rich literature on theoretical properties. However, a well known drawback of GPs that limits their use…