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In this paper, we investigate temporal clusters of extremes defined as subsequent exceedances of high thresholds in a stationary time series. Two meaningful features of these clusters are the probability distribution of the cluster size and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Marco Oesting , Alexander Schnurr

In this work, we develop a constructive modeling framework for extreme threshold exceedances in repeated observations of spatial fields, based on general product mixtures of random fields possessing light or heavy-tailed margins and various…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-20 Rishikesh Yadav , Raphaël Huser , Thomas Opitz

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Marno Basson , Tobias M. Louw , Theresa R. Smith

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-16 Evandro Konzen , Claudia Neves , Philip Jonathan

We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Chenglei Hu , Ben Swallow , Daniela Castro-Camilo

Statistical extreme value theory is concerned with the use of asymptotically motivated models to describe the extreme values of a process. A number of commonly used models are valid for observed data that exceed some high threshold.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-10 J. Lee , Y. Fan , S. A. Sisson

A regime-switching multivariate time series model which is closed under margins is built. The model imposes a restriction on all lower-dimensional sub-processes to follow a regime-switching process sharing the same latent regime sequence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Lin Zhang , Harry Joe , Natalia Nolde

Classical methods for quantile regression fail in cases where the quantile of interest is extreme and only few or no training data points exceed it. Asymptotic results from extreme value theory can be used to extrapolate beyond the range of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-23 Nicola Gnecco , Edossa Merga Terefe , Sebastian Engelke

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Gordon J. Ross , Dean Markwick

We study the problem of selecting features associated with extreme values in high dimensional linear regression. Normally, in linear modeling problems, the presence of abnormal extreme values or outliers is considered an anomaly which…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-16 Andersen Chang , Minjie Wang , Genevera Allen

Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-20 J. L. Wadsworth , J. A. Tawn

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

This paper develops a theoretical framework for Extreme Partial Least Squares (EPLS) dimension reduction in the presence of missing data and weak temporal dependence. Building upon the recent EPLS methodology for modeling extremal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-17 Stéphane Girard , Cambyse Pakzad

We investigate extreme value theory of a class of random sequences defined by the all-time suprema of aggregated self-similar Gaussian processes with trend. This study is motivated by its potential applications in various areas and its…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-09 Lanpeng Ji , Xiaofan Peng

High-dimensional multivariate time series are common in many scientific and industrial applications, where the interest lies in identifying key dependence structure within the data for subsequent analysis tasks, such as forecasting. An…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Madeline A. Shelley , Chiara Boetti , Marina I. Knight , Matthew A. Nunes

Extreme values modeling has attracting the attention of researchers in diverse areas such as the environment, engineering, or finance. Multivariate extreme value distributions are particularly suitable to model the tails of multidimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-16 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo

Many researchers have investigated first hitting times as models for survival data. First hitting times arise naturally in many types of stochastic processes, ranging from Wiener processes to Markov chains. In a survival context, the state…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-09-29 Mei-Ling Ting Lee , G. A. Whitmore

Parametric inference for spatial max-stable processes is difficult since the related likelihoods are unavailable. A composite likelihood approach based on the bivariate distribution of block maxima has been recently proposed in the…

Applications · Statistics 2012-05-08 Jean-Noel Bacro , Carlo Gaetan