Related papers: Black box variational inference for state space mo…
We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes,…
The Bayesian approach to inverse problems is widely used in practice to infer unknown parameters from noisy observations. In this framework, the ensemble Kalman inversion has been successfully applied for the quantification of uncertainties…
Often in machine learning, data are collected as a combination of multiple conditions, e.g., the voice recordings of multiple persons, each labeled with an ID. How could we build a model that captures the latent information related to these…
The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often…
Variational inference (VI) is a method to approximate the computationally intractable posterior distributions that arise in Bayesian statistics. Typically, VI fits a simple parametric distribution to the target posterior by minimizing an…
Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms are used in many areas, including tracking and navigation, medical applications, and financial trend filtering. One of the basic assumptions required to apply the Kalman smoothing framework is that…
Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte…
The unscented Kalman inversion (UKI) method presented in [1] is a general derivative-free approach for the inverse problem. UKI is particularly suitable for inverse problems where the forward model is given as a black box and may not be…
We propose denoising diffusion variational inference (DDVI), a black-box variational inference algorithm for latent variable models which relies on diffusion models as flexible approximate posteriors. Specifically, our method introduces an…
Achieving highly accurate dynamic or simulator models that are close to the real robot can facilitate model-based controls (e.g., model predictive control or linear-quadradic regulators), model-based trajectory planning (e.g., trajectory…
Deep state-space models (DSSMs) enable temporal predictions by learning the underlying dynamics of observed sequence data. They are often trained by maximising the evidence lower bound. However, as we show, this does not ensure the model…
We propose a new class of filtering and smoothing methods for inference in high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, spatio-temporal state-space models. The main idea is to combine the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother, developed in the…
This work considers estimation and forecasting in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional count time series model constructed from a transformation of a latent Gaussian dynamic factor series. The estimation of the latent model parameters…
We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…
We introduce a variational Bayesian neural network where the parameters are governed via a probability distribution on random matrices. Specifically, we employ a matrix variate Gaussian \cite{gupta1999matrix} parameter posterior…
Variational approaches to approximate Bayesian inference provide very efficient means of performing parameter estimation and model selection. Among these, so-called variational-Laplace or VL schemes rely on Gaussian approximations to…
Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward…
We consider inference problems for a class of continuous state collective hidden Markov models, where the data is recorded in aggregate (collective) form generated by a large population of individuals following the same dynamics. We propose…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs…
In the internet era there has been an explosion in the amount of digital text information available, leading to difficulties of scale for traditional inference algorithms for topic models. Recent advances in stochastic variational inference…