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A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-21 Chris Strickland , Robert Burdett , Robert Denham , Robert Kohn , Kerrie Mengersen

We introduce a generalized Bayesian method for multiple changepoint analysis with a loss function inspired by multinomial logistic regression. The method does not require a specification of the data-generating process and avoids restrictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Yuhui Wang , Andrew M. Thomas , Michael Jauch

A change point detection procedure using the method of moment estimators is proposed. The test statistics is based on a suitable $Z$-process. The asymptotic behavior of this process is established under both the null and the alternative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-08 Ilia Negri , Yoichi Nishiyama

Data segmentation a.k.a. multiple change point analysis has received considerable attention due to its importance in time series analysis and signal processing, with applications in a variety of fields including natural and social sciences,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-09 Haeran Cho , Claudia Kirch

In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-27 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

Change point detection is an important part of time series analysis, as the presence of a change point indicates an abrupt and significant change in the data generating process. While many algorithms for change point detection have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-15 Gerrit J. J. van den Burg , Christopher K. I. Williams

Change point estimation in its offline version is traditionally performed by optimizing over the data set of interest, by considering each data point as the true location parameter and computing a data fit criterion. Subsequently, the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-10 Zhiyuan Lu , Moulinath Banerjee , George Michailidis

This paper reviews recent developments in fundamental limits and optimal algorithms for change point analysis. We focus on minimax optimal rates in change point detection and localisation, in both parametric and nonparametric models. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Yi Yu

We show that the two-stage minimum description length (MDL) criterion widely used to estimate linear change-point (CP) models corresponds to the marginal likelihood of a Bayesian model with a specific class of prior distributions. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-09 David Ardia , Arnaud Dufays , Carlos Ordas Criado

Detecting early warning signals in climatic time series is essential for anticipating critical transitions and tipping points. Common statistical indicators include increased variance and lag-one autocorrelation prior to bifurcation points.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Sigrunn H. Sørbye , Eirik Myrvoll-Nilsen , Håvard Rue

In this article, we consider change point inference for high dimensional linear models. For change point detection, given any subgroup of variables, we propose a new method for testing the homogeneity of corresponding regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Bin Liu , Xinsheng Zhang , Yufeng Liu

In this paper we present a loss-based approach to change point analysis. In particular, we look at the problem from two perspectives. The first focuses on the definition of a prior when the number of change points is known a priori. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-09 Laurentiu Hinoveanu , Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa

We propose new methods for detecting multiple change points in time series, specifically designed for random walk processes, where stationarity and variance changes present challenges. Our approach combines two trend estimation methods: the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-22 Xiyuan Liu

High-dimensional changepoint analysis is a growing area of research and has applications in a wide range of fields. The aim is to accurately and efficiently detect changepoints in time series data when both the number of time points and…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-01 Thomas Grundy , Rebecca Killick , Gueorgui Mihaylov

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Haoxuan Wu , Toryn L. J. Schafer , Sean Ryan , David S. Matteson

A change points detection aims to catch an abrupt disorder in data distribution. Common approaches assume that there are only two fixed distributions for data: one before and another after a change point. Real-world data are richer than…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-18 Alexander Stepikin , Evgenia Romanenkova , Alexey Zaytsev

This paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis in multistation assembly systems. Fault diagnosis is to identify process faults that cause the excessive dimensional variation of the product using dimensional measurements. For such…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-31 Jihoon Chung , Bo Shen , Zhenyu , Kong

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

In the multisensor sequential change detection problem, a disruption occurs in an environment monitored by multiple sensors. This disruption induces a change in the observations of an unknown subset of sensors. In the Byzantine version of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-25 Georgios Fellouris , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

We propose a novel family of test statistics to detect the presence of changepoints in a sequence of dependent, possibly multivariate, functional-valued observations. Our approach allows to test for a very general class of changepoints,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-10 B. Cooper Boniece , Lajos Horváth , Lorenzo Trapani